Dongguan Securities·2025-06-10 09:22Group 1 - The report emphasizes the improvement in supply-demand dynamics within the basic chemical industry, highlighting structural opportunities in specific sub-sectors such as refrigerants, sweeteners, lubricating oil additives, and modified plastics [5][6][61] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in the scale of ongoing projects in the basic chemical sector, indicating a rationalization of supply as the industry moves away from "involution" competition [18][22] - The basic chemical sector's revenue for Q1 2025 was 605.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.49%, while net profit reached 36.91 billion yuan, up 5.18% year-on-year [21][29] Group 2 - In the refrigerant sector, the supply of second-generation refrigerants is being significantly reduced, while third-generation refrigerants remain under quota restrictions, leading to a favorable demand outlook driven by strong performance in air conditioning and automotive sectors [42][53] - The sweetener market is expected to benefit from the trend towards reduced sugar consumption, with potential growth in demand for products like sucralose and allulose, particularly if domestic approval for allulose is granted [4][6][4] - The lubricating oil additive market is poised for growth due to the increasing emphasis on domestic substitution, as the industry currently relies on significant imports, with 200,000 to 300,000 tons needed annually [6][5][6] Group 3 - The modified plastics sector is projected to grow as the government implements policies to encourage the replacement of old consumer goods, particularly in the automotive and home appliance markets [6][6][6] - The report indicates that the average price of refrigerants such as R134a and R32 has seen significant year-on-year increases, reflecting a high demand environment [59][63] - The overall market sentiment in the basic chemical industry is positive, with expectations of continued demand growth supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and boosting consumption [38][39][41]