新能源及有色金属日报：铝锭社会库存维持去库模式-20250610

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [4] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [4] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, there are no negative factors on the supply - side at home and abroad, consumption remains strong, and the high - demand reality is hard to change. The aluminum price is unlikely to fall due to low social inventory and the lack of a stocking trend. However, the sustainability of consumption needs attention, and the upward breakthrough of aluminum price may face difficulties without unexpected positive stimuli. Also, beware of cost collapse risks and pay attention to social inventory changes and the US interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - For alumina, the spot market price has declined, and the trading enthusiasm has dropped. The supply is showing signs of recovery from both production and inventory. The cost of bauxite has short - term support, and the expectation of alumina supply surplus remains unchanged [3]. Summary by Related Content Aluminum Spot and Futures - On June 9, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,210 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,150 yuan/ton, and the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,080 yuan/ton [1]. - The opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract on June 9, 2025, was 19,980 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 20,025 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.2%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 133,229 lots, an increase of 19,493 lots, and the holding volume was 181,672 lots, an increase of 214 lots [1]. Alumina Spot and Futures - On June 9, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,280 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,260 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,285 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - The opening price of the alumina main contract on June 9, 2025, was 2,909 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,892 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-1.47%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 515,561 lots, a decrease of 180,818 lots, and the holding volume was 301,043 lots, an increase of 2,608 lots [2]. Inventory - As of June 9, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 477,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 362,000 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons from the previous trading day [1]. Market Analysis - Electrolytic aluminum: Supply is stable, consumption is strong, and the inventory in June is expected to decline slightly. However, the sustainability of consumption is uncertain, and the upward breakthrough of aluminum price may be difficult without positive stimuli [3]. - Alumina: The spot price has declined, and the supply is recovering. The bauxite price has short - term support, and the supply surplus expectation remains [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminum - Neutral; Alumina - Cautiously Bearish [4]. - Arbitrage: Long - short spread trading in SHFE aluminum [4]