检修驱动有限，烧碱盘面震荡下行

Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [4] - Caustic Soda: Cautious short-selling hedging [4] Core Viewpoints - PVC has high supply and high inventory pressure, weak domestic demand, and lacks positive fundamental support, with limited upward driving force. Attention should be paid to macro-export policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4]. - The overall supply and demand fundamentals of caustic soda are expected to remain weak, with high inventory pressure, slow inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment and upstream maintenance dynamics [3][4]. Directory Summaries Market News and Important Data - PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the main PVC contract was 4,816 yuan/ton (+26), the East China basis was -136 yuan/ton (-6), and the South China basis was -26 yuan/ton (-16) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quoted 4,680 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide method quoted 4,790 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi-coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 80 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production was -426 yuan/ton (+121), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production was -520 yuan/ton (-15), and the PVC export profit was 3.0 US dollars/ton (-2.0) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation: The in-plant PVC inventory was 39.8 million tons (+1.4), the social PVC inventory was 36.1 million tons (-0.1), the operation rate of the PVC calcium carbide method was 79.90% (+4.19%), the operation rate of the PVC ethylene method was 71.13% (-0.58%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 77.47% (+2.87%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre-sale volume of production enterprises was 62.6 million tons (+8.6) [1]. - Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,308 yuan/ton (-27), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 442 yuan/ton (+27) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 880 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,400 yuan/ton (-10) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single-variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,759 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 935.8 yuan/ton (-120.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 463.78 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,446.05 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 38.21 million tons (-1.05), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.79 million tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate was 83.50% (-0.60%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operation rate was 80.35% (+0.82%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 61.50% (-1.18%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 80.56% (-0.04%) [2]. Market Analysis - PVC - Supply side: There are few new upstream maintenance projects, the PVC operation rate has increased month-on-month, the current output is at a high level in the same period, and it is difficult to drive a significant reduction in PVC production under the support of chlor-alkali profits. Coupled with the expected production of new capacity from June to July, the PVC supply pressure remains high [3]. - Demand side: The overall downstream operation of PVC is weakly stable, and the downstream market mainly purchases based on rigid demand, with the weak demand situation difficult to change [3]. - Inventory side: Downstream enterprises replenish inventory at low prices, the social PVC inventory continues to decline month-on-month but the de-stocking rate slows down, while the in-plant inventory accumulates. In the future, with the increase in supply and weak demand, the social inventory may slightly accumulate. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of PVC inventory [3]. - Export: Export orders are continuously and stably delivered, but the extension policy of the Indian BIS certification expires at the end of June, and there is currently no progress in the policy. Coupled with the rainy season suppressing terminal demand, it is expected to drag down export demand [3]. - Caustic Soda - Supply side: There are still many new maintenance projects in June, with the 1.02 million-ton capacity of Fujian Southeast Electrochemical completely shut down for maintenance, and the maintenance in Shandong has also increased. The operation rate in Shandong has declined month-on-month, but due to the acceptable chlor-alkali profits, upstream manufacturers mostly maintain high-load production. The overall caustic soda operation rate remains at a high level, and new caustic soda capacity is expected to be put into production from June to July, so the supply-side pressure of caustic soda remains high [3]. - Demand side: After the continuous increase in the purchase price, the delivery volume of the main downstream has significantly increased, but when the delivery volume exceeds the daily consumption and enters the inventory accumulation stage, attention should be paid to the sustainability of future inventory stocking. After the repair of the alumina production profit, the new and restarted capacities are gradually released, and the alumina operation rate has increased month-on-month, but the restart is still not obvious at present. The non-aluminum demand performance is not good, the dyeing operation rate has declined month-on-month, and downstream customers are cautious about high prices and mainly purchase based on rigid demand [3]. - Cost side: With the decline in coal and electricity prices, the cost support for caustic soda has shifted downward [3]. Strategy - PVC: Adopt a neutral strategy. Due to the continuous high supply and high inventory pressure of PVC and weak domestic demand, the fundamental lack of positive support, and limited upward driving force, currently at a low valuation with limited downward space. Continue to pay attention to macro-export policies at the export end and the recovery of downstream demand [4]. - Caustic Soda: Adopt a cautious short-selling hedging strategy. Currently, the comprehensive chlor-alkali profit is acceptable, the inventory is being digested but at a slow speed, the inventory pressure is high, and the overall supply and demand fundamentals of caustic soda are still expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment and upstream maintenance dynamics [4].