宝城期货铜日内回落

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Copper: Last night, copper prices soared, and today they oscillated and declined with a continuous increase in open interest. Since last Friday, copper prices have been rising with increasing positions, driven by the short - term improvement in the macro - atmosphere. At the industrial level, consumption has entered the off - season, social inventory destocking has slowed down, and the basis and monthly spread have continued to narrow. Technically, the short - term futures price faces some pressure at the May high point. One can continuously monitor the long - short game at this position [5]. - Aluminum: Today, aluminum prices oscillated weakly, with the main futures price breaking below the 20,000 yuan mark and the open interest rising slightly. Recently, the macro - atmosphere has improved. At the industrial level, upstream electrolytic aluminum plants have high profits, resulting in significant hedging pressure on the market, which exerts pressure on aluminum prices. Downstream demand is good, electrolytic aluminum social inventory is continuously destocking, and the monthly spread is oscillating strongly. The casting aluminum alloy was listed today, and short - term arbitrage funds may intervene, putting pressure on aluminum prices. The good macro - atmosphere combined with the strong industrial reality may cause the futures price to oscillate and stabilize. One can focus on the positive monthly spread arbitrage [6]. - Nickel: Today, nickel prices oscillated, with the main futures price narrowly oscillating around 121,500 yuan, and the open interest rising slightly. The improved macro - atmosphere is beneficial to nickel prices. At the industrial level, the upstream ore end is tight, downstream demand is weak, domestic nickel inventory is destocking from a high level, and overseas inventory is continuously rising. Technically, after nickel prices broke below the 122,000 yuan mark, the futures price may run weakly [7]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics Copper - On June 10, Mysteel reported that Sinomine Resource Group stated that due to the rapid expansion of global smelting capacity leading to a shortage of copper concentrates, its Tsumeb plant in Namibia has suspended copper smelting operations. The smelter can process 240,000 tons of copper concentrates annually and previously processed metals from countries such as Chile, Peru, and Bulgaria. In recent years, the rapid expansion of global copper smelting capacity has exceeded the metal's production. The demand for copper has been boosted by its application in renewable energy technologies including electric vehicles. Sinomine Resource Group plans to upgrade the smelter and explore adding germanium and zinc smelting production lines [9]. Aluminum - On June 10, the casting aluminum alloy futures were listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The nearest - month contract AD2511 opened at 19,400 yuan/ton, up 1,035 yuan from the listing benchmark price of 18,365 yuan/ton. In 2024, China's recycled copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc production reached 1.915 million tons, accounting for 24% of the output of ten non - ferrous metals and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 170 million tons. Among them, the recycled aluminum output exceeded 1 million tons, with a carbon emission reduction contribution rate of over 85%. On June 9, the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the listing benchmark prices for casting aluminum alloy futures contracts [10]. Nickel - On June 10, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the main premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,400 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,970 yuan/ton; the main premium of Russian nickel was +700 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,270 yuan/ton; the main premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,320 yuan/ton; and the main premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,670 yuan/ton [11]. Group 4: Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [12][14][15]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, and alumina inventory [25][27][29]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].