冠通研究：库存继续去化，铜价上涨

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The low inventory currently is the main reason supporting the rise in copper prices. The tariff policy is expected to drive the global copper trade, and copper prices are mainly fluctuating strongly. Attention should be paid to inventory changes under the influence of tariff expectations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Shanghai copper fluctuated strongly during the day. Citibank postponed the Fed's interest rate cut expectation by two months and predicted a 75 - basis - point cut this year. In May, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [1] - On the supply side, the port inventory of refined copper ore has been significantly reduced, and the supply of copper raw materials has tightened. As of June 9, 2025, the spot smelting fee was - 42.9 dollars per thousand tons, and the spot refining fee was - 4.28 cents per pound. The supply of copper concentrate is currently in short supply, and smelters face the risk of production reduction due to deepening losses. The inventory reduction in other regions due to steel tariffs has deepened the supply shortage [1] - On the demand side, as of April 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.2827 million tons, a decrease of 89,700 tons or 6.54% from the previous month. Entering the off - season, the apparent consumption is expected to continue to decline in May. Although major indicators such as PMI have improved, the operating rates of downstream copper foil, copper tubes, etc. have decreased month - on - month, and demand remains an important factor restricting the rise in copper prices [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Opened high, fluctuated, and closed up. The closing price was 78,880. The long positions of the top 20 were 130,482 lots, a decrease of 2,683 lots; the short positions were 132,136 lots, a decrease of 2,463 lots [4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 65 yuan per ton, and in South China was 45 yuan per ton. On June 9, 2025, the LME official price was 9,740 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 109 dollars per ton [4] Supply Side - As of the latest data on June 9, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 42.9 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.28 cents per pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of inventory, the SHFE copper inventory was 33,700 tons, a decrease of 496 tons from the previous period. As of June 9, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 51,500 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory was 120,400 tons, a slight decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory was 189,700 short tons, an increase of 1,843 short tons from the previous period [9]