银河期货纯碱期货日报-20250610

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on soda ash futures dated June 10, 2025, from the Commodity Research Institute's Energy and Chemicals Research Report series [2] Group 2: Basic Data Spot Market - The prices of heavy soda ash in Huazhong, East China, and North China remained unchanged on June 10, 2025, compared to the previous day, while the price in Shahe increased by 2 yuan/ton to 1244 yuan/ton, and the price in the Northwest decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1030 yuan/ton [3] - The prices of light soda ash in Huazhong and North China remained unchanged, while the price in East China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1230 yuan/ton, and the price in the Northwest decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1030 yuan/ton [3] - The average price difference between heavy and light soda ash increased by 4 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton [3] Futures Market - Among the SA09, SA01, and SA05 contracts, the SA09 contract price increased by 6 yuan/ton to 1208 yuan/ton, the SA01 contract price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1191 yuan/ton, and the SA05 contract price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1233 yuan/ton [3] - The position of the main contract decreased by 64,797 lots to 1,448,568 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 364,582 lots to 1,382,031 lots [3] - The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 149 to 5,495 [3] Basis and Spread - Among the SA09, SA01, and SA05 contracts, the basis of the SA09 contract decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 36 yuan/ton, the basis of the SA01 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 53 yuan/ton, and the basis of the SA05 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 11 yuan/ton [3] - The spread of SA01 - 05 remained unchanged at -42 yuan/ton, the spread of SA05 - 09 decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton, and the spread of SA09 - 01 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 17 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Data - The weekly production of soda ash was 704,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.77% and a year - on - year increase of 2.91% [3] - The operating rate of soda ash was 80.76%, a week - on - week increase of 2.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.61% [3] - The factory inventory of soda ash was 1.627 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.17% and a year - on - year increase of 98.85% [3] - The apparent demand for soda ash was 701,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.01% [3] - The profit of the combined soda process was 178 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 80.59% [3] - The profit of the ammonia - soda process was 49.9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25.74% and a year - on - year decrease of 90.62% [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Conditions - According to Longzhong Information, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased by 2 yuan/ton to 1244 yuan/ton, the price of heavy soda ash in Qinghai remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton, the price of light soda ash in East China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1230 yuan/ton, and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash was 49 yuan/ton [5] Important Information - As of June 9, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6783 million tons, an increase of 51,300 tons or 3.15% from the previous Thursday [6] - The domestic soda ash market was weakly sorted, and the trading center moved down. The soda ash plant had small fluctuations, with Jiangsu Huachang starting operation and the output gradually increasing. The downstream demand was average, the profit level of some industries was average, and their own inventory was at a high level. The procurement sentiment for soda ash was cautious, and the purchase was mainly based on low - price and on - demand [6] Logic Analysis - Today, macro - level disturbances were greater than industry - level factors, and the market was concerned about the results of further Sino - US negotiations [7] - On the supply side, the old line of Haihua will start operation tomorrow, Shaanxi Xinghua may have maintenance at the end of the month, and Jiangsu Kunshan is expected to have maintenance on the 19th. The daily output of soda ash remains unchanged at 107,000 tons [7] - On the demand side, short - term demand was stable, but there were medium - term concerns. The output of float glass and photovoltaic glass still had room to decline, especially the concern about the cold repair of float glass affected the demand for soda ash [7] - On the cost side, the market began to think that the room for further decline in the raw material side was limited. Ammonium chloride may weaken seasonally, but the losses of ammonia - soda and combined soda processes were not deep enough to stimulate market clearance, and maintenance was only temporary [7] - In terms of time, the rainy season and off - season were approaching, and it was difficult for demand to increase. The natural market clearance of supply depends on profit and cycle [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Macro factors were dominant, the game between long and short positions intensified. From a fundamental perspective, the price still had room to decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [9]