市场情绪趋稳，钢矿震荡运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar: The main contract price fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.07%, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak, and steel prices remain under pressure. However, the low inventory level limits the real - world contradictions. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The main contract price fluctuated with a daily decline of 0%, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coil have weakened, inventory has started to increase, and prices continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the easing of Sino - US trade risks. It is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - Iron Ore: The main contract price fluctuated weakly with a daily decline of 0.85%, showing an increase in both volume and open interest. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of iron ore have weakened, and ore prices are under pressure. The relative positive factor is the large discount of the futures price, which provides resistance to the downward movement. It is expected that the ore price will oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - Real Estate Debt Restructuring: Leading real - estate developers are in the process of debt reduction. Sunac has obtained support from 74% of its overseas creditors for its debt restructuring, and Country Garden has reached a 70% consensus with its creditors on high - interest debts. The debt restructuring progress of troubled real - estate enterprises is accelerating [6]. - Excavator Sales: From January to May 2025, the domestic sales of excavators were 57,501 units, a year - on - year increase of 25.7%. In May 2025, 18,202 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 2.12%. Domestic sales were 8,392 units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.48%, and exports were 9,810 units, a year - on - year increase of 5.42% [7]. - Industry Initiative: The China Iron and Steel Association called on the steel and automobile industries to resist "involution - style" competition, strengthen self - discipline, and promote the healthy and sustainable development of the industrial chain through technological innovation [8]. Spot Market - Steel Products: The national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) decreased by 5 yuan, and the national average price of hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) decreased by 1 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet (Q235) was 2,900 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,080 yuan. The volume - to - rebar price difference was 120 yuan, and the rebar - to - scrap price difference was 1,000 yuan [9]. - Iron Ore: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 718 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 728 yuan, unchanged. The Australian sea freight was 10.22 yuan, a decrease of 0.17 yuan; the Brazilian sea freight was 24.21 yuan, an increase of 0.07 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 95.56 yuan, a decrease of 0.70 yuan; the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 95.20 yuan, a decrease of 0.90 yuan [9]. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 2,974 yuan, a decrease of 0.07%. The trading volume was 1,456,363 lots, an increase of 23,001 lots, and the open interest was 2,165,234 lots, a decrease of 31,488 lots [13]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,089 yuan, unchanged. The trading volume was 507,470 lots, a decrease of 4,710 lots, and the open interest was 1,592,616 lots, an increase of 7,398 lots [13]. - Iron Ore: The closing price of the active contract was 698.5 yuan, a decrease of 0.85%. The trading volume was 353,841 lots, an increase of 49,661 lots, and the open interest was 721,095 lots, an increase of 1,354 lots [13]. Related Charts - Steel Inventory: The report provides charts on the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including inventory data from different years [15][16][18]. - Iron Ore Inventory: Charts show the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, including seasonal inventory and inventory changes [20][21][26]. - Steel Mill Production: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, and the operating rate and profitability of independent electric furnaces [29][30][32]. 后市研判 - Rebar: The supply and demand of rebar are both weak. The weekly output decreased by 70,500 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 196,500 tons. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals are weak, and prices are under pressure. Due to the low inventory, the real - world contradictions are limited. It is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom [38]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The supply - demand pattern has weakened. The weekly output increased by 92,000 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 60,100 tons. The fundamentals have weakened, inventory has increased, and prices are under pressure. With the easing of Sino - US trade risks, it is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [38]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand pattern is weakly stable. The terminal consumption of ore is weakly stable, but the demand is expected to weaken in the off - season. The supply pressure is large, and the price is under pressure. Due to the large discount of the futures price, the downward movement has resistance. It is expected to oscillate weakly [39].