下游需求落实减产能源化工：PX、PTA

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - PX weakened this week with device restarts. Oil prices fluctuated under macro and geopolitical factors, providing unstable cost support. The restart of previously shut - down devices increased the operating rate, but the reduction in polyester demand raised concerns. Under the weak macro and commodity market, PX prices were weakly sorted [9]. - PTA prices also entered a weak operation. There were no major fundamental news. Concerns about trade frictions weakened the overall atmosphere in the bulk chemical market. The peak of PTA device maintenance passed, new PTA capacity was planned for trial operation, and the inventory reduction speed slowed down. Although PX provided some support, the reduction in downstream polyester production and load made the fundamentals weak [9]. 2.2 Market Forecast - Crude oil: The market is a mix of long and short factors. Oil prices are likely to fluctuate within a range. Potential risks include the repeated US tariff policies and Saudi Arabia's production increase [10]. - PX: Before the new round of maintenance at the end of the month, PX will maintain high - load operation, and overseas devices will also increase their loads [10]. - PTA: Honggang Petrochemical's 2.5 - million - ton new device has been put into operation. With few subsequent maintenance plans, PTA's operating rate will gradually increase [10]. - Polyester: The load of filament remained stable, but some large polyester staple fiber plants in Jiangsu reduced their loads, which had a significant impact on market sentiment [10]. - Weaving: The effect of rushing to export orders is weakening. Although the overall order placement in the foreign trade market is smooth, there is intense price competition [10]. - Overall: PX will operate weakly in the range of 6300 - 6600 yuan/ton, and PTA will operate weakly in the range of 4400 - 4700 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to gradually reduce short positions [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX - PX Futures: Without news guidance, prices moved within a range. The closing price of the PX main contract on June 6 was 6556 yuan/ton, a decrease of 232 yuan/ton (-3.42%) compared to May 29. The settlement price on June 6 was 6586 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton (-1.79%) compared to May 29 [13][15]. - PX Spot: The market negotiation and trading atmosphere declined, and the spot market was generally dull. From May 29 to June 6, the average basis of the main contract was 106 yuan/ton. The average domestic PX spot price was 6655.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85.65 yuan/ton (-1.27%) compared to the previous period [16][18]. 3.1.2 PTA - PTA Futures: Prices fluctuated weakly and continued to decline. The closing price of the PTA main contract on June 6 was 4652 yuan/ton, a decrease of 162 yuan/ton (-3.45%) compared to May 29. The settlement price on June 6 was 4672 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton (-1.70%) compared to May 29 [20][22]. - PTA Spot: The negotiation atmosphere was average, mainly among traders, with some polyester factories replenishing stocks. From June 2 to June 6, the average basis of the main contract was 224 yuan/ton. The weekly average CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 623.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.7 US dollars/ton (-0.75%) compared to the previous period. The average spot price of PTA in the East China market was 4874 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.6 yuan/ton (-0.79%) compared to the previous period [23][25]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Devices - Domestic PX Devices: Many domestic PX devices have adjusted their loads. For example, Ningbo Daxie is operating at 60% load, and some devices of Shenghong Refining & Chemical are operating at 90% load. The overall domestic PX device operating rate has recovered to the level of the same period in 2022, and there are still maintenance plans at the end of the month. The operating rate from May 26 - 30 was 82.11%, and from June 2 - 6, it was 84.97% [28][30][34]. - Asian Other PX Devices: Devices in different regions have different operating conditions. Some devices are shut down for maintenance, and some are operating at reduced loads. For example, Pertamina in Indonesia has been shut down since January, and its restart time is postponed [32]. 3.2.2 PTA Devices - Some PTA devices have restarted, such as the 3 - million - ton device of Jiayuan Energy and the 2.25 - million - ton device of Yisheng Dalian. The 1.2 - million - ton device of Ningbo Taihua postponed its shutdown plan. The new 2.5 - million - ton device of Honggang Petrochemical was put into operation, and the weekly operating rate increased by 0.99% [38][39][40]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - Crude Oil: Geopolitical factors such as the Ukraine - Russia conflict increased the geopolitical premium. WTI crude oil's futures settlement price on June 6 was 64.58 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.79 US dollars/barrel compared to May 30. Brent crude oil's futures settlement price on June 6 was 66.47 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.69 US dollars/barrel compared to May 30 [45][47]. - Naphtha: The supply pressure increased due to the increase in arbitrage volume, and the demand was affected by LPG substitution and the shutdown of some downstream cracking devices. The economic viability of naphtha weakened significantly this week. The weekly average CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 567.66 US dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 30.39 US dollars/ton [50][52]. - PX Spot: The weekly high of PX spot trading was 844 US dollars/ton, and the low was 818 US dollars/ton. The weekly average CFR price of PX in the Chinese main port was 826 US dollars/ton, a change of -1.71% compared to the previous week; the weekly average FOB price in South Korea was 802 US dollars/ton, a change of -1.86% compared to the previous week [53][55]. 3.3.2 Supply - PX Processing Margin: The PXN was relatively strong under the poor performance of naphtha. The weekly average PXN was 261.23 yuan/ton, a change of -5.61% compared to the previous period. The PX - MX spread increased, with a weekly average of 100.30 US dollars/ton [56][58]. - PTA Processing Fee: The average spot processing fee of PTA from June 3 - 6 was 408.32 yuan/ton, compared with 353.69 yuan/ton last week. As the concentrated maintenance period of PTA in the first half of the year is approaching the end, it is difficult for the processing fee to break through the current level [60][64]. - Inventory: As of June 6, the PTA social inventory was 4.469 million tons, a decrease of 43,000 tons compared to the previous week, with a change in the year - on - year growth rate of -0.76%. As of June 5, the average inventory days of domestic PTA manufacturers were 4.02 days, and the inventory days of polyester factories were 8.25 days [66][68][72]. 3.3.3 Demand - Polyester Market: The polyester market lacked positive driving factors. The average prices of some polyester products fluctuated. For example, the average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market decreased by 0.35% compared to the previous period. The average inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories decreased by 1.06 days to 8.35 days, while the average inventory days of polyester chip factories increased by 0.49 days to 11.60 days [74][76][79]. - Weaving Market: The effect of rushing to export orders weakened. After the holiday, the production and sales of polyester were poor. From June 2 - 6, the average weekly production and sales of polyester were estimated to be 50%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.42%, and the average weekly load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 69.45%. The comprehensive operating rate of weaving decreased moderately [80][82][90].