Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The bear market of coking coal is not over, but the decline slope may slow down. The recent sharp rise in coking coal futures prices is more likely a basis - repair rebound rather than a signal of reversal. The coking coal valuation will bottom out and stabilize only when terminal demand is boosted or supply is significantly reduced after the valuation is depressed [16][19] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Mongolia's Political Change and Coking Coal Supply - On June 3rd, Mongolia removed Prime Minister Oyun - Erdene, leading to market expectations of tightened coal export policies, with some expecting a 20% coal export resource tax increase. Currently, there is no policy adjustment, but even without supply - side disturbances, the supply of Mongolian coal will shrink as the current second - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is higher than the latest transaction price. The decline in the third - quarter long - term contract price needs to be awaited [3] - The previous decline of the coking coal futures 2509 contract price had already factored in the expected decline of about $6 in the third - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal, indicating that the decline rhythm of coking coal futures prices was relatively advanced [5][7] II. Domestic Coking Coal Supply - Although the overall supply of domestic coking coal mines remains high, there has been a continuous small - scale reduction in production for several weeks. Some large mines have reduced production due to full warehouses, some mines have been shut down for rectification due to accidents, and a small number of private mines have cut production due to losses. However, the overall reduction scale is not significant yet [9] - According to Fenwei Energy statistics, the average profit level of 227 mines from 88 enterprises across the country has been continuously compressed, and sample mines in Shaanxi are close to the break - even point. Some coking coal mines in certain regions have entered the loss zone, but most private coking coal mines are still far from cash - flow losses. A significant reduction in carbon element supply requires a further decline in the price center [12] III. Demand Side - Although there are concerns about the seasonal decline in steel terminal demand, the current daily hot metal output remains at around 2.4 million tons, maintaining high - level rigid demand for all furnace materials. The hot metal output from June to August this year may remain at a relatively high level of around 2.35 million tons per day, which may delay the negative feedback process of the entire ferrous metals [14] - The 5500K port price of thermal coal has been weakly stable at around 619 yuan/ton recently, with a year - to - date decline of 150 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decline of 260 yuan/ton. The arrival of the thermal coal consumption peak season may support the valuation of some blended coking coal [17]
国投期货:焦煤:熊市未尽,斜率趋缓
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-06-10 11:08