苹果产业风险管理日报-20250610

Report Overview - Report Title: Apple Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: June 10, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current market focuses on bagging conditions and consumption impacts, and attention should be paid to early-maturing apple prices after mid-June [4] - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the apple market. Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas and unstable weather in some regions; bearish factors include less-than-expected overall yield reduction and the impact of seasonal fruits [5][6] Key Points by Content Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - The predicted monthly price range for apples is 7300 - 7900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.8% [3] - For inventory management, when worried about low apple purchase prices due to a potential new apple harvest, enterprises with long positions can short apple futures (AP2510) at a 50% hedging ratio in the 7600 - 7650 range to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - For procurement management, when worried about high apple purchase prices due to a decline in old - crop apple inventory and potential new - crop apple production reduction, enterprises with short positions can buy apple futures (AP2510) at a 25% hedging ratio in the 7350 - 7450 range to lock in procurement costs [3] Market Factors Analysis Bullish Factors - Inventory in apple production areas is at a historical low. Low initial inventory and faster - than - usual de - stocking in the early stage have led to a continuous decline in inventory, which supports the market [5] - Unstable weather in production areas has attracted capital attention. Research data shows that the fruit - setting situation in the northwest production area is poor, indicating a possible significant production reduction [5] Bearish Factors - The overall yield reduction based on bagging conditions is less than expected, and the bagging situation is relatively normal [6] - As the season for seasonal fruits arrives, the large supply of fruits such as watermelons, grapes, and lychees at low prices has impacted the apple market. High - priced fruits have few buyers, indicating weak consumption [6] Price Changes - On June 10, 2025, the closing prices of apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) showed various daily and weekly percentage changes. For example, AP01 closed at 7439 with a daily increase of 0.53% and a weekly decrease of 1.54% [6] - Spot prices of different apple varieties (such as Qixia first - and second - grade 80) remained stable on that day, with no daily or weekly price changes [6] Inventory Status - The national cold - storage inventory is 138.2 (unit not specified), showing a decrease of 13.76 compared to a previous period. The national cold - storage inventory in another comparison is 136.5 with an increase of 9.81 [9] - Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu, Shanxi, Henan, and Liaoning have different cold - storage capacity ratios, all showing a downward trend [9] - The arrival volume of apples at major wholesale markets in Guangdong (such as Guangdong Chalong, Guangdong Jiangmen) decreased on a weekly basis [9]