能源化工：MEG：短纤又增减产，价格震荡运行

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The ethylene glycol (MEG) price is expected to fluctuate between 4,150 - 4,400 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to gradually reduce short positions [5]. - The MEG futures market declined weakly this week, mainly due to weakening demand. Although the port inventory decreased significantly after the holiday, polyester downstream production cuts led to a downward trend in the MEG market. The impact of polyester production cuts is gradually increasing, despite the low - level support from the current low operating rate [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Main Viewpoints - The MEG price is expected to range from 4,150 - 4,400 yuan/ton, and short positions should be gradually reduced [5]. - This week, the MEG futures market declined weakly. After the holiday, the port inventory decreased, but polyester downstream production cuts led to the decline. Although affected by the news of blocked US ethane exports, the price briefly rose and then fell back. Recently, there are both device overhauls and restarts, and the low operating rate provides support at the low level, but the impact of polyester production cuts is increasing [6]. - Next week's prediction: The oil price will fluctuate within a range. The supply side is expected to see an increase in the operating rate with the restart plans of Henan Yongcheng 1 - 2 and Tianjin Zhongsha. On the demand side, short - fiber has joined the production - cut queue, but the support from production cuts is limited, and the current filament inventory is at a reasonable level. The port inventory will continue to decline this month, and the mainstream trade tank inventory will remain at a low level [6]. Disk and Spot Conditions - There is no new news support after the tariff suspension [8]. - This week, the trading volume was 1.11 million lots, and the open interest was 280,700 lots (+10,800 lots) [11]. - As of June 9, the closing price of the MEG main contract was 4,256 yuan/ton, a decrease of 93 yuan/ton (-2.14%) compared to May 30. The settlement price was 4,267 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73 yuan/ton (-1.68%) compared to May 30 [13]. - For spot prices, the high - end domestic transaction price was 4,518 yuan/ton (June 3), and the low - end was 4,374 yuan/ton (June 4/6). The average basis this week was 135.60 yuan/ton, compared to 145.40 yuan/ton last week. The domestic and foreign markets of MEG remained inverted, with an overall level of 65.85 US dollars/ton [15]. MEG Device, Inventory, and Production Profit Conditions - The overall operating rate has declined in steps in the second quarter due to unexpected overhauls of Northeast devices. From June 3 - 9, it was 54.35%, compared to 55.68% from May 26 - 30 [19]. - The operating rate of petroleum - based production was 55.99%, coal - based was 51.19%, and methanol - based was 62.40% [22]. - This week, there were restarts of devices such as Far Eastern Union, Yulin Chemical, Shaanxi Coal Yulin, Yangzi BASF, and Guizhou Qianxi, and overhauls of devices such as Anhui Hongsifang, Yueneng Chemical, Yangmei Shouyang, and Satellite [24]. - Coal - based production profits have improved significantly this year, followed by oil - based production profits [32]. - As of June 5, the MEG port inventory was 550,000 tons, an increase of 35,300 tons (+17.36%) compared to the previous period. Among them, Zhangjiagang had 217,000 tons (-14,000 tons), Jiangyin had 60,000 tons (+10,000 tons), Taicang had 153,000 tons (+17,000 tons), Ningbo had 88,000 tons (+23,000 tons), and Shanghai and Changshu had 32,000 tons (-700 tons) [38]. - Due to polyester production cuts, the port提货 volume decreased significantly. From May 29 - June 4, the average daily shipment volume at the Zhangjiagang main port was around 5,800 tons, at the two main storage areas in the Taicang direction was around 4,500 tons, and in the Ningbo direction was around 3,500 tons. The inventory of the mainstream domestic trade transfer tanks was around 10,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons compared to the previous period [41]. Fundamental Analysis - The oil price fluctuates within a range under macro - influence, and the cost - side support for MEG is not significant [44]. - The polyester market lacks positive driving factors, with weak production and sales. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.42%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 69.45%. The market average prices of semi - bright POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F were 7,019 yuan/ton, 8,219 yuan/ton, and 7,313 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -0.16%, +0.35%, and +0.45% compared to last week. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6,495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton (-0.35%) compared to the previous period. The negotiation range of polyester bottle chips in the East China region was 5,900 - 5,980 yuan/ton, and the average price this week was 6,005 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.84% compared to the previous reporting period [48]. - The demand has partially weakened, and the comprehensive operating rate of weaving has declined moderately. After entering June, the domestic sales market has become dull, the inventory pressure of weaving factories has increased, and the terminal customers' price - pressing procurement is common. As of June 5, the operating rates of water - jet looms in Wujiang, Changxing, Xiaoshao, Haining, and Changshu regions were 74.03% (-2.59%), 84.26% (-0.35%), 52.31% (+3.85%), 74% (-1.50%), and 45% (-1.0%) respectively [54]. - The effect of the export rush has weakened and ended, and the production and sales have been poor after the holiday. From June 2 - 6, the average weekly production and sales of polyester were estimated to be 50%. Before the Dragon Boat Festival last week, the production and sales feedback of polyester factories' end - of - month promotions was only around 140%, far lower than the same - period level. After the holiday, the previous export rush effect weakened, and the domestic trade was in the seasonal off - season, with weak restocking demand from downstream weaving and texturing factories. Polyester factories were relatively tight in terms of price concessions, resulting in light filament production and sales this week [57]. - The trading was冷清 before and after the holiday, the filament price decreased, and the inventory increased. As of June 5, the average inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY were 16.50 days, 21.60 days, and 28.40 days respectively. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber in mainstream factories were 8.35 days, a decrease of 1.06 days compared to the previous period, and the inventory days of polyester chip factories were 11.60 days, an increase of 0.49 days compared to the previous period [58][60].