Group 1 - The investment rating of the ethylene glycol industry is not mentioned in the report [2][3] - The core view of the report is that the ethylene glycol industry currently shows a pattern of stable supply and weakening demand on the margin The upward movement of the futures price is restricted by the selling pressure from high inventory and cost losses, as well as the downward drag from weakening demand The inventory accumulation caused by high arrival volumes also limits the rebound space If the inventory continues to rise or crude oil prices weaken, the risk of a weakening and volatile market will increase [2][3] Group 2 1. Daily Market Summary - The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract on June 9, 2025, was 4,253 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (0.31%) from the previous value, continuing the previous pattern of being slightly stronger in a volatile market The spot price in East China decreased from 4,385 yuan/ton to 4,365 yuan/ton, a drop of 20 yuan (0.46%) [2] - In terms of spreads, the 1 - 5 spread increased from -9 yuan/ton to -1 yuan/ton (an increase of 88.89%), the 5 - 9 spread increased from -12 yuan/ton to -2 yuan/ton (an increase of 83.33%), and the 9 - 1 spread decreased from 21 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton (a decrease of 85.71%), indicating that the forward contracts are strengthening [2] - In terms of profit, oil - based production remained in a loss state (currently -92.01 US dollars/ton), coal - based production profit remained stable at -218 yuan/ton (no change), and losses in the natural gas - based production routes (including ethylene - based and methanol - based) continued to deepen (ethylene - based production profit was -564.92 yuan/ton, and methanol - based production profit was -1,124.02 yuan/ton), showing that the pressure on raw material costs has not eased [2] - On the supply side, the overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained flat at 54.36%, with the oil - based operating rate at 56.44% and the coal - based operating rate at 50.5% unchanged, indicating a stable domestic production rhythm without new capacity disturbances [2] - On the demand side, the load of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was locked at 63.43% [3] - On the inventory side, the inventory at the main ports in East China increased from 57.67 tons to 59.8 tons (an increase of 3.69%), the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased from 23.0 tons to 21.8 tons (a decrease of 5.22%), but the arrival volume increased from 11.5 tons to 13.7 tons (an increase of 19.13%). Combined with the narrowing of the basis and the decline in spot prices, it shows that the increase in overseas shipments has led to a slight accumulation of inventory, and the decrease in Zhangjiagang's inventory indicates accelerated local out - shipments, but the overall supply - demand situation is becoming more relaxed [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The main contract price of MEG futures on June 9, 2025, was 4,253 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan from June 6, 2025, with a daily increase of 0.31% The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 24,295 lots to 208,567 lots, a decrease of 10.43%, and the open interest increased by 4,022 lots to 284,769 lots, an increase of 1.43% [5] - The spot price in the East China market of MEG decreased from 4,385 yuan/ton to 4,365 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan (0.46%) The MEG basis decreased from 170 yuan/ton to 157 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan (7.65%) [5] - The 1 - 5 spread of MEG increased from -9 yuan/ton to -1 yuan/ton, an increase of 88.89%; the 5 - 9 spread increased from -12 yuan/ton to -2 yuan/ton, an increase of 83.33%; the 9 - 1 spread decreased from 21 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85.71% [5] - The oil - based production profit remained at a loss of -92.01 US dollars/ton, the coal - based production profit remained at -218 yuan/ton with no change, the ethylene - based production profit was -564.92 yuan/ton, and the methanol - based production profit was -1,124.02 yuan/ton [2][5] - The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based operating rate, oil - based operating rate, polyester factory load, textile loom load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, ethylene - based operating rate, and methanol - based operating rate all remained unchanged [5] - The inventory at the main ports in East China increased from 57.7 tons to 59.8 tons, an increase of 3.69%; the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased from 23.0 tons to 21.8 tons, a decrease of 5.22%; the arrival volume increased from 11.5 tons to 13.7 tons, an increase of 19.13% [5] 3. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides 6 charts, including the closing price and basis of the main ethylene glycol contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, weekly inventory statistics of ethylene glycol at the main ports in East China, and the total inventory of the ethylene glycol industry [6][8][10]
乙二醇日报：乙二醇库存小幅累积抑制反弹，或延续震荡偏弱走势-20250610
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-06-10 11:20