聚丙烯风险管理日报-20250610

Group 1: Report Summary - The report predicts the price range of polypropylene (PP) for the month to be between 6,800 and 7,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.93% and a historical percentile of 13.3% over 3 years [1] - It provides hedging strategies for inventory and procurement management, including using futures and options contracts [1] - The core contradiction is that the PP market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, limiting its upward space. The supply pressure is high due to expected decline in planned maintenance and upcoming new installations, while demand is weak due to the traditional off - season and poor downstream profits [2] - There are some利多 factors such as high - level ongoing device maintenance leading to marginal supply reduction and the current low - level of the market limiting its downward space [3] - There are also利空 factors including new installations during the Dragon Boat Festival and more in 6 - 8 months, a decline in exports after the seasonal peak, and weak domestic demand due to the off - season and poor profits [4] Group 2: Price and Spread Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The polypropylene main basis on 2025 - 06 - 10 was 139 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 21 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 27 yuan/ton. PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts also had corresponding price changes [1][5] - The PP1 - 5, PP5 - 9, and PP9 - 1 month spreads had specific values and daily/weekly changes [5] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China showed different changes on 2025 - 06 - 10 compared to previous days, and regional spreads also changed [7] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - Spreads between different non - standard and standard PP products (e.g., homopolymer injection - molding to wire - drawing) had various daily and weekly changes [7] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent crude oil price, US propane price, Northwest coal price, and East China methanol price had different changes. Different PP production methods (oil - based, coal - based, etc.) had corresponding profit changes [7]