有色和贵金属每日早盘观察-20250610

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - environment has high uncertainty. Gold is expected to continue high - level volatile adjustments, and silver may maintain a relatively strong trend [3][5]. - LME copper has a delivery risk, and copper prices may rise in the short - term [7][10]. - Alumina supply is increasing, and prices are expected to move closer to the cash cost of high - cost production capacity and then fluctuate [12][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to when the seasonal inflection point of consumption arrives [20][21]. - Zinc prices are expected to decline as inventories continue to accumulate [23][24]. - Lead prices will mainly fluctuate in a range due to weak supply and demand [26][28]. - Nickel prices will continue to fluctuate due to the pattern of weak supply and demand [30][33]. - Stainless steel prices are under pressure from supply, and the market is expected to be weak, but the raw material end provides cost support [34][37]. - Industrial silicon supply and demand are basically balanced in June, but the industry will continue to have low or negative profits, and 7500 yuan/ton may be the resistance level for the rebound [40][41]. - Short - term polysilicon prices remain weak, and short positions in the PS2507 contract can be held [44][46]. - Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation [48][49]. - Tin prices are driven by macro - sentiment in the short - term, and the annual supply - demand tightness expectation has been significantly alleviated [52][53]. 3. Summary by Directory Pre - market Observation of Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Market Review - Precious metals: London gold rose 0.43% to 3325.215 dollars/ounce, London silver rose 2.16% to 36.743 dollars/ounce. Shanghai gold rose 0.18% to 776.66 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.07% to 9015 yuan/kilogram [3]. - Dollar index: It fell 0.25% to 98.94 [3]. - 10 - year US Treasury yield: It slightly fell to 4.488% [3]. - RMB exchange rate: It rose 0.23% to 7.1785 [3]. Important Information - Tariff trends: The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London [3]. - US macro: The 1 - year inflation expectation in May was 3.2%, and the wholesale sales monthly rate in April was 0.1% [3]. - Fed watch: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in July is 14.5% [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt the strategy of trying long positions on dips [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Wait and see [5] Copper Market Review - Futures: LME copper rose 1.01% to 9768.5 dollars [7]. - Spot: LME inventory decreased by 10000 tons to 12.24 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1843 short tons to 189720 short tons [7]. Important Information - China - US economic and trade consultations began in London [7]. - In May, CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year; PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year [7]. - Chile's copper exports in May were 4.48 billion dollars, a 4.4% year - on - year increase [7]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Due to the delivery risk in LME, copper prices may rise in the short - term [10]. - Arbitrage: Hold the borrow strategy [10]. - Options: Wait and see [10] Alumina Market Review - Futures: The 2509 contract fell 12 yuan/ton to 2883 yuan/ton [12]. - Spot: The prices in different regions were mostly flat, with a 25 - yuan decrease in Xinjiang [12]. Relevant Information - The national alumina production capacity was 112.42 million tons, with an operating capacity of 90.65 million tons and an operating rate of 80.6% [12]. - The ex - factory price of a certain tender was nearly 100 yuan/ton lower than the previous transaction price in the central region [12]. - As of June 5, the national alumina inventory was 3.133 million tons, a decrease of 29000 tons from the previous week [13]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Alumina prices are expected to decline towards the cash cost of high - cost production capacity, and attention should be paid to raw material supply risks [16]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [16]. - Options: Wait and see [16] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The 2507 contract rose 55 yuan/ton to 20060 yuan/ton [18]. - Spot: The prices in different regions decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [18]. Relevant Information - China - US economic and trade consultations continued [18]. - In May, CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the decline of PPI expanded to 3.3% [20]. - Tian Shan Aluminum plans to carry out a green and low - carbon energy - efficiency improvement project for 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity [20]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the seasonal inflection point of consumption [21]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [21]. - Options: Wait and see [21] Zinc Market Review - Futures: LME zinc fell 0.98% to 2654 dollars/ton, and Shanghai zinc 2507 fell 0.9% to 21925 yuan/ton [23]. - Spot: The spot price in Shanghai decreased, and the overall transaction was average [24]. Relevant Information - As of June 9, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 81700 tons, an increase of 4300 tons from June 3 [24]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Hold short positions [24]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [24]. - Options: Wait and see [24] Lead Market Review - Futures: LME lead rose 0.53% to 1988 dollars/ton, and Shanghai lead 2507 rose 0.81% to 16865 yuan/ton [26]. - Spot: The average price of SMM1 lead rose 25 yuan/ton, and the transaction of recycled lead was poor [26]. Relevant Information - As of June 9, the total social inventory of SMM's five - region lead ingots was 53400 tons, an increase of 3500 tons from June 3 [26]. - A large - scale recycled lead smelter in the northwest postponed its resumption of production [27]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate in a range [28]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [28]. - Options: Wait and see [28] Nickel Market Review - Futures: LME nickel fell 125 dollars to 15365 dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel 2507 fell 740 yuan to 121950 yuan/ton [30]. - Spot: The premiums of Jinchuan, Russian nickel, and electrowon nickel decreased [30]. Relevant Information - An ITSS nickel - iron plant's 14 furnace resumed production after maintenance [31]. - A Swedish battery manufacturer may stop production at the end of June [31]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro and nickel ore changes [35]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [35]. - Options: Consider the range double - selling strategy [35] Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The SS2507 contract fell 70 yuan to 12560 yuan/ton [34]. - Spot: The prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were in a certain range [34]. Important Information - Indian stainless steel enterprises called for tariff measures to deal with imports [34]. - A stainless steel project in Fujian is expected to be completed in mid - August [37]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Pay attention to the support at 12500 yuan [38]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [38] Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: The main contract rose 2.33% to 7475 yuan/ton [40]. - Spot: The spot price was stable, and there was a possibility of a decline [40]. Relevant Information - Shaanxi plans to adjust the time - of - use electricity price policy [40]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short positions can be arranged above 7500 yuan/ton [42]. - Arbitrage: Hold the reverse spread of Si2511 and Si2512 [42]. - Options: Wait and see [42] Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: The main contract fell 2.24% to 34105 yuan/ton [44]. - Spot: The transaction prices of different types of polysilicon were basically flat [44]. Relevant Information - Zhejiang encourages virtual power plants and user - side energy storage to participate in response [44]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Hold short positions in the PS2507 contract and gradually stop losses below 34000 yuan/ton [46]. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread of far - month contracts [46]. - Options: Sell call options to realize profits [46] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The 2507 contract fell 100 yuan to 60700 yuan/ton [48]. - Spot: The prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate increased by 50 yuan [48]. Important Information - In May, the sales of new - energy passenger vehicles increased significantly [48]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Sell on rebounds, and do not recommend bottom - fishing [51]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [51]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [51] Tin Market Review - Futures: The 2507 contract rose 0.38% to 263860 yuan/ton [51]. - Spot: The average price of Shanghai tin ingots decreased by 500 yuan/ton [51]. Important Information - China - US economic and trade consultations continued, focusing on tariffs, technology, and rare earths [52]. - In May, CPI and PPI decreased [52]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The decline of tin prices may be limited in the short - term [53]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [53]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [53]