聚乙烯风险管理日报-20250610

Report Overview - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Report Core View: The current PE market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side is in a centralized maintenance season, but the high - capacity growth still leads to an overall supply increase. The demand side is affected by low - profit environments and the off - season, with no obvious demand drivers. Attention should be paid to the conversion of full - density devices due to the high HD - LL spread [2]. Price Forecast - Monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 33.8% [1]. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For producers with high product inventory worried about price drops: - Short 25% of L2509 plastic futures at 7100 - 7150 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [1]. - Sell 50% of L2509C7200 call options at a premium of 70 - 120 yuan/ton to reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [1]. Procurement Management - For buyers with low regular inventory and wanting to purchase according to orders: - Buy 50% of L2509 plastic futures at 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs [1]. - Sell 75% of L2509P6900 put options at a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [1]. Market Factors Bullish Factors - PE devices are in a seasonal maintenance period, and the centralized maintenance season is expected to last until July [3]. - The current futures price is at a relatively low level, with limited downward space [3]. - The high HDPE - LLDPE spread may lead to more conversions of full - density devices [3]. Bearish Factors - Multiple HDPE devices are planned to be put into operation in the middle of the year [7]. - The off - season of downstream production and sales and the low - profit environment have led to a decrease in domestic demand [7]. - Although the plastic spot has shown signs of price support recently, the overall trading volume is weak [7]. Market Data Futures Prices and Spreads | Indicator | 2025 - 06 - 10 | 2025 - 06 - 09 | 2025 - 06 - 03 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic Main Basis | 94 | 107 | 202 | - 13 | - 108 | yuan/ton | | L01 Contract | 7078 | 7050 | 6936 | 28 | 142 | yuan/ton | | L05 Contract | 7067 | 7036 | 6935 | 31 | 132 | yuan/ton | | L09 Contract | 7106 | 7078 | 6963 | 28 | 143 | yuan/ton | | L1 - 5 Month Spread | 11 | 14 | 1 | - 3 | 10 | yuan/ton | | L5 - 9 Month Spread | - 39 | - 42 | - 28 | 3 | - 11 | yuan/ton | | L9 - 1 Month Spread | - 28 | - 28 | - 27 | 0 | - 1 | yuan/ton | | L - P Spread | 165 | 146 | 79 | 19 | 86 | yuan/ton | [5][8] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads | Indicator | 2025 - 06 - 10 | 2025 - 06 - 09 | 2025 - 06 - 03 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | North China | 7100 | 7030 | 7030 | 70 | 70 | yuan/ton | | East China | - | 7160 | 7190 | - 7160 | - 7190 | yuan/ton | | South China | 7270 | 7200 | 7170 | 70 | 100 | yuan/ton | | East - North Spread | - | 130 | 160 | - 130 | - 160 | yuan/ton | | East - South Spread | - | - 40 | 20 | 40 | - 20 | yuan/ton | [8] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads | Indicator | 2025 - 06 - 10 | 2025 - 06 - 09 | 2025 - 06 - 03 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HDPE Film - LLDPE Film | 425 | 440 | 510 | - 15 | - 85 | yuan/ton | | HDPE Hollow - LLDPE Film | 425 | 445 | 435 | - 20 | - 10 | yuan/ton | | HDPE Injection - LLDPE Film | 375 | 390 | 410 | - 15 | - 35 | yuan/ton | | HDPE Drawing - LLDPE Film | 675 | 690 | 720 | - 15 | - 45 | yuan/ton | | HDPE Pipe - LLDPE Film | 1500 | 1515 | 1535 | - 15 | - 35 | yuan/ton | | LDPE Film - LLDPE Film | 1975 | 1865 | 1910 | 110 | 65 | yuan/ton | [8] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits | Indicator | 2025 - 06 - 10 | 2025 - 06 - 09 | 2025 - 06 - 03 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent Crude Oil Price | 66 | 66 | 65.63 | 0 | 0.64 | dollars/barrel | | US Ethane Price | 0.2375 | 0.2371 | 0.2246 | 0.0004 | 0.0129 | dollars/gallon | | Northwest Coal Price | 470 | 470 | 470 | 0 | 0 | yuan/ton | | East China Methanol Price | 2430 | 2390 | 2320 | 40 | 110 | yuan/ton | | Oil - based PE Profit | - | 72 | 96 | - 71.5591 | - 95.8048 | yuan/ton | | Coal - based PE Profit | 783 | 768 | 716 | 15 | 67.25 | yuan/ton | | Purchased Methanol - based PE Profit | 215 | 238 | 300 | - 22.5 | - 85 | yuan/ton | | Purchased Ethane - based PE Profit | 1563 | 1547 | 1683.3354 | 15.8011 | - 120.0517 | yuan/ton | | Purchased Ethylene - based PE Profit | - | - 166 | - 191.8836 | 166.0898 | 191.8836 | yuan/ton | [8]