银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250610

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products Daily Report - Egg Report [2] - Date: June 10, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3591, up 26 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3354, up 34; JD09 closed at 3655, down 19 [3] - 01-05 spread was 237, down 8; 05-09 spread was -301, up 53; 09-01 spread was 64, down 45 [3] - 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, unchanged; 01 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.17, up 0.01 [3] Spot Market - Main production area average price was 2.75 yuan/jin, unchanged; main sales area average price was 2.95 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - Average price of culled chickens was 4.54 yuan/jin, down 0.02 from the previous day [3] Profit Calculation - Today's profit per bird was -6.06 yuan, down 0.37 from yesterday [3] - Corn average price was 2390 yuan/ton, up 2; bean粕 average price was 2944 yuan/ton, up 4 [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - Today's main production area average price was 2.75 yuan/jin, down 0.03 from the previous day; main sales area average price was 2.95 yuan/jin, down 0.06 [6] - In May, the national laying hen inventory was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a 7.2% year-on-year increase [7] - In May, the monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises was 46.985 million, a 4% month-on-month decrease and a 1% year-on-year increase [7] - From June to September 2025, the estimated laying hen inventory is 1.339 billion, 1.347 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.350 billion respectively [7] - From June 1 - 6, the national culled chicken slaughter volume was 19.97 million, a 0.5% decrease from the previous week [7] - As of June 5, the average culling age of culled chickens was 515 days, a decrease of 6 days from the previous week [7] - As of June 6, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 8856 tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous week [8] - As of June 6, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.94 days, a decrease of 0.02 days; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.02 days [8] - As of June 5, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was -0.34 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - The near - month 07 contract is expected to maintain a weak performance due to the off - season demand after the rainy season in May, but the downward space is limited [10] - For the far - month contracts, if the culling volume increases and improves the egg supply, the August and September contracts (peak season contracts) may rise; otherwise, the upward space is limited [10] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the August and September far - month contracts in mid - to late June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high [11] - Arbitrage: Short near - month and long far - month [11] - Options: Wait and see [11]