铁合金产业风险管理日报-20250610

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 10, 2025 - Authors: Yuan Ming (Z0012648), Chen Mintao (F03118345) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - Short - term market sentiment has improved due to factors like the China - US leaders' phone call and technical buying in ferroalloys. However, the spot market is dragged down by steel mills' price pressure and weakening costs. In the context of the terminal steel demand entering the off - season, the long - term trend of ferroalloys remains relatively weak. The previous high - inventory negative factor is weakening, supply is low, and ferroalloys will continue the de - stocking trend. With the further reduction of Ningxia's electricity price this week and the arrival of the wet season in the South, the cost side is expected to decline. Coupled with the negative feedback expectation of the black market during the demand off - season, ferroalloys are expected to run weakly [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon iron price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 17.84%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 45.7% - Silicon manganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 25.65%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 66.1% [2] Ferroalloy Hedging - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about ferroalloy price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5300 - 5400, SM: 5300 - 5400 [2] 利多解读 Silicon Iron - High steel mill profitability will maintain high hot metal production, which supports the demand for silicon iron - Silicon iron has been falling continuously, and its low valuation has the possibility of a rebound - The total inventory of silicon iron shows a de - stocking trend [7] Silicon Manganese - The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry - The total inventory of silicon manganese shows a de - stocking trend - Silicon manganese has been falling continuously, and its low valuation has the possibility of a rebound [5][8] 利空解读 Silicon Iron - The port inventory of thermal coal is at a high level, the coal sector remains weak, and there is room for further decline in the electricity cost of ferroalloys. This week, the electricity price of ferroalloys in Ningxia fell below 0.4 yuan/kWh to 0.395 yuan/kWh - The weekly operating rate of silicon iron production enterprises is 32.78%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32%. The weekly output of silicon iron is 97,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.61% [9] Silicon Manganese - In the long run, the real estate market is sluggish, the black market as a whole is declining, and the market doubts the growth of steel terminal demand, so the demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak - The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese production enterprises is 35.03%, a week - on - week increase of 0.26%. The weekly output of silicon manganese is 171,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.15% [10] Daily Data Silicon Iron - On June 10, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 276 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 70 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 24 yuan/ton - The spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline - The number of warehouse receipts was 15,415, a day - on - day decrease of 47 and a week - on - week decrease of 1038 [10] Silicon Manganese - On June 10, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 248 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 124 yuan/ton - The spot prices in different regions were relatively stable or slightly increased - The number of warehouse receipts was 100,048, a day - on - day decrease of 717 and a week - on - week decrease of 4530 [10][11]