苯乙烯风险管理日报-20250610

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View From June 8th to 13th, the second round of Sino-US economic and trade talks took place. The recent futures price trend is greatly affected by macro disturbances and is oscillating strongly. The price trend depends on the outcome of the talks. If there is no substantial increase in demand, styrene will gradually enter the off - season, with a weak fundamental outlook, and the price is likely to fall later [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - Price Range Forecast: The monthly price range forecast for styrene is 6,800 - 7,600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 29.40% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 85.8% [2]. - Hedging Strategies: - Inventory Management: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, strategies include shorting styrene futures (EB2507, 25% ratio, entry range 7,350 - 7,450 yuan/ton) and selling call options (EB2507C7500, 50% ratio, entry range 60 - 90) [2]. - Procurement Management: For low regular procurement inventory, strategies include buying styrene futures (EB2507, 50% ratio, entry range 7,100 - 7,200 yuan/ton) and selling put options (EB2507P7200, 75% ratio, entry range 80 - 110) [2]. 3.2 Core Contradiction The price trend of styrene futures is affected by the second round of Sino - US economic and trade talks. If there is no substantial increase in demand, the price is likely to fall as it enters the off - season [3]. 3.3利多解读 - Inventory Reduction: As of June 9, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 80,000 tons, a decrease of 9,100 tons (-10.21%) from the previous period, indicating destocking [4]. - Complementary Demand: Downstream factories have low raw material inventories, and the demand for restocking supports the styrene price, with a strong basis in late June [4]. - Positive Market Expectations: Based on the phased results of the first round of talks, the market has positive expectations for the second round of Sino - US economic and trade talks, creating a warm market atmosphere [5]. - Pure Benzene Price Increase: Shandong refineries had smooth sales over the weekend. The complementary demand supported the increase in the pure benzene price, and Sinopec raised the listed price of pure benzene to 6,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3.4利空解读 - Pure Benzene Inventory Increase: As of June 9, the pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu was 149,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.76%. European supplies are expected to arrive in mid - to - late June, and the import volume of pure benzene in June is still expected to be high [6]. - Supply Increase: The previously shut - down units of pure benzene and styrene are gradually resuming production, and the supply is increasing [6]. - Weak Downstream Follow - up: The absolute price of styrene has increased, but the downstream 3S products have difficulty following the price increase [8]. - Factory Inventory Increase: As of June 5, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 191,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,800 tons (12.16%) [8]. 3.5 Price and Spread Data - Styrene Basis Change: The daily basis of styrene in East China shows an upward trend, with the basis of East China - EB06 increasing by 95 yuan/ton, East China - EB07 increasing by 50 yuan/ton, East China - EB08 increasing by 65 yuan/ton, and East China - EB09 increasing by 73 yuan/ton from June 9 to June 10, 2025 [9]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Chain Spread: The spreads in the pure benzene - styrene industry chain have various changes, with some spreads increasing and some remaining stable [9]. - Industrial Chain Price Data: The prices of various products in the styrene industry chain, such as crude oil, pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products, show different degrees of daily and weekly changes. For example, the price of styrene in East China increased by 185 yuan/ton from June 9 to June 10, 2025 [10][11].