国投期货化工视点：烧碱专题：下游氧化铝需求分析

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the demand for caustic soda from the perspective of alumina and the reasons behind the sharp fluctuations in the caustic soda market this year. It points out that although alumina has a large capacity growth rate, most of the new alumina production uses imported bauxite with low caustic soda consumption, resulting in limited growth in caustic soda demand. In the second half of this year, caustic soda faces the pressure of supply - demand surplus due to new production capacity [2][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Imported Bauxite Has Low Caustic Soda Consumption - Alumina is the largest downstream consumer of caustic soda, accounting for 30%. The demand for caustic soda is affected by the alumina production growth rate and bauxite quality. The Bayer process, which uses caustic soda, is the mainstream method for alumina production, accounting for over 90% in China and over 95% globally [3]. - In alumina production, caustic soda is used to process bauxite. Theoretically, 0.14 - 0.16 tons of caustic soda are consumed to produce 1 ton of alumina using the Bayer process. However, due to different bauxite qualities, the caustic soda consumption varies. Imported bauxite has a high alumina - silica ratio and low silicon content, resulting in low caustic soda consumption [6][7]. - Specifically, domestic bauxite has an alumina - silica ratio of 4 - 6, with a caustic soda consumption of 0.17 - 0.2 tons per ton of alumina; Australian bauxite has an alumina - silica ratio of 6 - 8, with a caustic soda consumption of 0.11 - 0.14 tons per ton of alumina; Guinean bauxite has a high alumina - silica ratio, with a caustic soda consumption of 0.05 - 0.07 tons per ton of alumina [7]. 3.2 The Proportion of Imported Bauxite Has Increased Significantly - China's bauxite reserves are relatively scarce, accounting for less than 2% of the global total. Domestic bauxite supply has been tight, leading to an increase in the proportion of imported bauxite, which has risen to over 70% and is expected to continue increasing in 2025 [10]. - Domestic bauxite is mainly distributed in Guangxi, Henan, Guizhou, and Shanxi. Imported bauxite mainly comes from Guinea, Australia, and Indonesia. Currently, China mainly imports bauxite from Guinea and Australia, accounting for 70% and 25% respectively [12]. 3.3 Alumina Production Areas' Use of Bauxite - Shandong has the largest alumina production capacity, accounting for 29%, and uses all imported bauxite due to its coastal import advantage. Provinces without bauxite resources, such as Chongqing, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia, rely entirely on imported bauxite. Guizhou and Yunnan mainly rely on domestic bauxite, while Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi still mainly use domestic bauxite, but the proportion of imported bauxite is increasing [13]. - In 2023, the top three destinations for imported bauxite in China were Shandong (34%), Shanxi (33%), and Guangxi (10%) [13]. 3.4 Alumina's Caustic Soda Consumption Has Decreased in Recent Years - In the past decade, although alumina production has been increasing, the replacement of domestic bauxite with imported bauxite, especially the significant increase in the proportion of Guinean imports, has led to a decrease in caustic soda consumption per unit of alumina. Therefore, alumina expansion does not necessarily mean an increase in caustic soda demand [18]. 3.5 The New Alumina Production in 2025 Has Limited Impact on Caustic Soda Demand - In 2025, the new alumina production capacity is about 1.13 billion tons, an increase of 11.2%. Most of the new production uses imported bauxite with low caustic soda consumption. The new production has already achieved an increase of 620,000 tons, and there are still 510,000 tons of capacity to be put into production [23]. - Through theoretical calculations, the new alumina production in 2025 will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 835,900 tons, with a demand growth rate of about 2.2% compared to 2024. Although the alumina capacity growth rate is large, the actual growth in caustic soda demand is limited [24]. 3.6 Summary - At the beginning of 2025, the caustic soda futures price rose significantly due to the expected strong demand from alumina production and low inventory. After the Spring Festival, high caustic soda profits led to high - level production, while the falling alumina price raised concerns about postponed production, resulting in a rapid increase in liquid caustic soda inventory and a sharp decline in the futures price [26]. - In the second half of this year, caustic soda faces the pressure of supply - demand surplus. The planned new caustic soda production capacity in the second half of the year is 3.06 million tons, an increase of 6.26% [26][28].