Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel (Thread and Hot Rolled Coil): ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi - empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆★, with a somewhat unclear bias, but the symbol contains a star, indicating a certain upward or downward driving force, but limited operability on the market [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆★, with a somewhat unclear bias, but the symbol contains a star, indicating a certain upward or downward driving force, but limited operability on the market [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for steel products is weak, with the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain still fermenting. The market is in a state of short - term shock, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] - The supply pressure of iron ore is increasing, and there is still a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain in the medium term. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [3] - The prices of coke and coking coal have rebounded slightly. Although the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream iron - making is at a high level, and the impact of tariffs has eased [4][6] - The price of silicon manganese has rebounded, but the improvement of the fundamentals is limited. It is recommended to try long positions lightly and observe the sustainability of the rebound [7] - The price of silicon ferrosilicon has rebounded, with overall acceptable demand and a slight decline in inventory. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Performance: The steel futures market showed a weak shock today. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased month - on - month in the off - season, and the inventory reduction slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coils decreased, production increased, and inventory began to accumulate [2] - Demand Situation: Downstream demand is generally weak. Infrastructure improvement is limited, manufacturing prosperity has slowed down, real - estate sales recovery lacks sustainability, and new construction and construction have continued to decline significantly. Although steel exports remained high in May, the demand expectation is still pessimistic [2] - Future Trend: The steel market is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] Iron Ore - Supply Situation: Global iron ore shipments continued to rebound and reached a new high this year, and the domestic arrival volume continued to increase. It is expected to remain high in the short term, and port inventory may stop falling and rise [3] - Demand Situation: Terminal demand has weakened in the off - season. Although the profitability of steel mills is okay and the motivation for active production reduction is insufficient, there is still a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain in the medium term [3] - Future Trend: The short - term trend of iron ore is expected to be mainly volatile [3] Coke - Market Performance: The price of coke rebounded slightly [4] - Supply and Demand Situation: The production of coke is still at a relatively high level this year, and the overall inventory has increased slightly. Downstream iron - making is at a high level, and the impact of tariffs has eased [4] - Future Trend: Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US tariff disturbances [4] Coking Coal - Market Performance: The price of coking coal rebounded quickly after a decline [6] - Supply and Demand Situation: The production of coking coal mines has declined slightly from a high level, and the overall inventory has decreased slightly. Downstream iron - making is at a high level, and the impact of tariffs has eased [6] - Future Trend: Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US tariff disturbances [6] Silicon Manganese - Market Performance: The price of silicon manganese rebounded driven by coking coal [7] - Supply and Demand Situation: Due to previous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly production has begun to increase. Manganese ore inventory has increased significantly, and it is expected that the quotation of manganese mines will decline [7] - Future Trend: It is recommended to try long positions lightly and observe the sustainability of the rebound [7] Silicon Ferrosilicon - Market Performance: The price of silicon ferrosilicon rebounded driven by coking coal [8] - Supply and Demand Situation: The production of silicon ferrosilicon has continued to decline, and the overall demand is acceptable. The inventory has decreased slightly, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8] - Future Trend: Attention should be paid to the impact of the inventory reduction model on the market [8]
国投期货黑色金属日报-20250610
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-06-10 12:38