2025下半年有色金属行业投资策略：商品和金融属性共振，高景气进一步扩散

Macro Environment - The macro environment is characterized by intensified trade frictions and a continued interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, with a focus on changes in tariff policies [3][5][12] - The U.S. Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates in July 2023 and is expected to cut rates by 100 basis points by May 2025, maintaining a high rate level [9][10] Precious Metals - The financial attributes of precious metals are expected to continue to shine, with gold prices projected to rise due to weakened dollar reserve credit and increasing global central bank diversification of reserve assets [3][5][30] - Silver, which has lagged behind gold, is anticipated to experience strong demand for a rebound, with a focus on companies like Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and others [3][5][38] Base Metals - The base metal sector is expected to see a shift in weak expectations, with aluminum production nearing capacity limits and demand from new energy and power sectors offsetting declines in real estate demand [3][5][60] - Copper supply shortages are expected to persist, with a favorable outlook for price recovery following interest rate cuts [3][5][77] Minor Metals - The minor metals sector is witnessing a bottoming cycle with positive changes emerging, particularly in strategic minor metals like rare earths and tungsten, as well as a rebound in cobalt prices due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [3][5][98][99] - Lithium prices are declining, and high-cost production is expected to accelerate exit from the market, while nickel supply disruptions are anticipated [3][5][60]