国投期货有色金属日报-20250610

Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Lead: Not clearly defined [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Not clearly defined [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and provides trading suggestions for each metal based on these factors [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper gave back its gains and closed lower. Short - term LME copper inventory outflow accelerated, with logistics shifting to the US, and the silver price increase drove the copper price. However, domestic consumption is entering the off - season. Short - term traders should consider stopping losses above 79,500 yuan and pay attention to the fluctuations of US copper [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum declined slightly, with the spot premium in East China at 70 yuan. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 27,000 tons on Monday compared to last Thursday, while that of aluminum rods remained unchanged. The aluminum market maintains a low - inventory situation, but demand faces challenges from seasonal decline and pre - exported consumption. Shanghai aluminum is temporarily oscillating, with resistance at 20,300 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum in the short term, and the spread with Shanghai aluminum may narrow in the off - season. Alumina has a large supply elasticity after profit recovery, with domestic operating capacity exceeding 90 million tons. The futures are weak due to oversupply, and it is advisable to short on rallies. The Guinea ore price is stable at $75, corresponding to a cost of about 3,000 yuan in Shanxi, and it is not advisable to short the futures due to a large discount [3] Zinc - SMM's research shows that smelter output in June is expected to increase by 40,000 tons month - on - month. Consumption is pre - exported and in the traditional off - season, so demand remains weak. The average price of SMM 0 zinc decreased by 430 yuan/ton to 22,160 yuan/ton, and the spot premium to the near - month contract decreased to 50 yuan/ton. The main Shanghai zinc contract fell 1.27%, with the weighted position increasing by 7,878 lots to 285,000 lots and the settled funds reaching 5.567 billion yuan. The short - covering strength slowed down. Considering the support from the smelting cost, short positions opened at high levels should consider taking partial profits around 21,500 yuan/ton, and the overall view is to short on rallies [4] Lead - The price of lead batteries remains high. Under environmental inspections, some secondary lead smelters reduced production, supporting the slow increase of the lead price. The average price of SMM 1 lead increased by 100 yuan to 16,625 yuan/ton, with a spot discount of 195 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The refined - scrap spread is 25 yuan/ton. Downstream enterprises purchase cautiously, and the spot trading is light. The lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined significantly, and the market trading was light. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,400 yuan, that of imported nickel is 100 yuan, and that of electrowon nickel is 150 yuan. Due to continuous rainfall in the Philippines, the loading progress of nickel mines was delayed. The price of NPI stopped falling, but domestic NPI smelters are still in a loss. The inventory of nickel iron increased by 2,000 tons to 31,500 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 983,000 tons. Wait for opportunities to short Shanghai nickel [7] Tin - Shanghai tin turned down in the late trading. The spot tin price is 264,800 yuan, with a spot premium of 990 yuan to the delivery - month contract. The MA60 moving average of domestic and international tin prices is the objective boundary of the price trend. Due to supply factors, the tin price rebounded quickly after the decline. When Shanghai tin rebounds close to the previous level above 265,000 yuan, some short positions should be reduced or rolled over to the far - month contract [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded, and the market trading was average. The total market inventory increased by 800 tons to 132,400 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 540 tons to 41,000 tons, the smelter inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 57,000 tons, and the inventory in the intermediate link increased by 500 tons. The downstream restocking and upstream destocking did not continue, but the sentiment of traders in the intermediate link became more positive, and the spot bottom - fishing sentiment continued. The latest price of Australian ore is $607.5, and the decline rate slowed down. The mid - stream production increased by 7% month - on - month. Technically, the decline of lithium carbonate futures slowed down, and the position indicates risk accumulation. The decline rate of Australian ore slowed down, and the short - selling momentum weakened. It is advisable to participate in the rebound with a light position [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures increased with a reduction in positions, closing at 7,415 yuan/ton, and the market trading volume declined. On the supply side, the weekly increase is mainly driven by the resumption of production of leading enterprises in Xinjiang. The production schedules of downstream polysilicon and silicone in June are expected to increase month - on - month, but there may still be a slight inventory build - up in June. The short - term price is driven by technical rebounds and macro - mood fluctuations. It is difficult to determine the end of the short - term market, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of the M20 moving average. The overall trend is still bearish [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures declined with a reduction in positions, and the oscillation center continued to move down. After the PV 531 policy node, the short - term distributed demand declined, and centralized projects are mainly in a wait - and - see state. After component enterprises raised prices, it was difficult to follow up with transactions. The production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells in June continued to shrink, while the polysilicon production schedule increased slightly. The inventory pressure of polysilicon is expected to increase slightly, and leading enterprises have the expectation of lower production costs after capacity replacement. Technically and from the perspective of macro - mood transmission, polysilicon futures may oscillate weakly in the short term [11]