行业营收、业绩表现承压，海外业务快速发展，2025年经营指标有望改善

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The construction industry is experiencing operational pressure due to declining real estate demand and local fiscal constraints, with a projected revenue decline of 3.81% year-on-year for 2024 and a net profit decline of 14.59% [2][16] - Non-traditional construction sectors, such as chemical engineering and international engineering, are showing resilience and growth, with chemical engineering revenue increasing by 4.43% year-on-year in 2024 [2][25] - The eight major state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the construction sector have seen a slight decrease in revenue and profit, but their overseas business is performing well, with a 10.05% increase in overseas revenue in 2024 [3][41] Summary by Sections Revenue and Performance - The construction industry is under pressure, with a total revenue of 8.71 trillion yuan in 2024, down 3.81% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.83 trillion yuan, down 14.59% [2][19] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 6.17% year-on-year, attributed to seasonal factors and delayed project commencement [2][17] - The eight major SOEs accounted for approximately 80.31% of the construction sector's revenue, with a total revenue of about 7 trillion yuan in 2024, down 3.55% year-on-year [3][33] Profitability - The overall gross margin for the construction industry remained stable at 10.92% in 2024, with improvements noted in international engineering and chemical engineering sectors [4][42] - The net profit margin decreased to 2.62% in 2024, primarily due to increased expense ratios and impairment losses [4][19] - Return on equity (ROE) for the industry fell to 7.29%, with international engineering leading at 10.78% [7][19] Cash Flow and Debt - The operating cash flow for the construction industry decreased by 31.60% year-on-year in 2024, totaling 1.12 trillion yuan [8][19] - The debt ratio for the industry increased to 76.84% in 2024, indicating rising financial leverage [19][42] Investment Outlook - The fiscal policy for 2025 is expected to be positive, with significant government investment planned, including a deficit target of 5.66 trillion yuan and new special bonds totaling 4.4 trillion yuan [24][25] - The concentration of the industry is increasing, with major SOEs expected to enhance their competitive edge [9][24] - The overseas business of construction SOEs is anticipated to continue growing, with a focus on international projects along the Belt and Road Initiative [10][41]