市场变化有限,盘面继续偏强运行
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-06-10 13:30
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content was found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean meal futures market continued to strengthen, mainly driven by macro - factors. The rapeseed meal futures market also rebounded, mainly influenced by soybean meal. The inter - monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures showed a generally strong trend [4]. - The fundamentals of US old - crop soybeans are still favorable, while the new - crop sowing progress has slowed but remains at a relatively high level. Brazil's soybean selling progress is slow, and its exports are expected to increase. Argentina's domestic soybean crushing may slow down [5]. - The domestic spot market is becoming more abundant, with increasing soybean oil mill operating rates and inventory accumulation. The near - term demand improvement is limited, but there may be support in the long - term due to relatively tight supply [7]. - The macro - situation, especially the Sino - US negotiations in the UK, is the main driver of the market. Future negotiation results may have a significant impact on the market [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The external market continued to fluctuate, with limited overall changes. The domestic soybean meal futures market strengthened, and the rapeseed meal futures market rebounded. The inter - monthly spreads of both showed a strong trend [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals - US: As of the week ending June 5th, the good - to - excellent rate of US new - crop soybeans was 68%. The old - crop export inspection volume was 547,000 tons, at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The USDA - reported soybean crushing volume in April was 5.508 million tons, a 2.03% month - on - month decrease. The new - crop sowing progress has slowed [5]. - Brazil: The selling progress of Brazilian farmers has accelerated but remains at a low level in the same period of history. The recent soybean crushing volume has decreased, and exports are expected to increase [5]. - Argentina: The growth rate of domestic soybean crushing may slow down [5]. - Domestic: As of June 6th, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2446 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.1%. The soybean inventory was 6.1029 million tons, a 4.7% increase from the previous week and a 24.7% increase year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 382,500 tons, a 28.36% increase from the previous week and a 57% decrease year - on - year. The rapeseed meal demand has weakened, and the supply pressure remains [7]. 3.3 Macro - situation - The market's focus is on the Sino - US negotiations in the UK. Although little information has been released, the market is optimistic due to pre - meeting positive signals. The macro - situation has become the main driver of the market, and the negotiation results may have a significant impact [8]. 3.4 Logical Analysis - The domestic soybean meal futures market is strengthening, mainly driven by the macro - situation. The US soybean futures market may face downward pressure. The import cost of soybeans from Brazil is expected to have limited downward movement. The rapeseed meal market is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Arbitrage: Go long on the M11 - 1 spread. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [9].