银河期货油脂日报-20250610

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The report predicts that short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend. It also suggests a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options trading [10] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: For soybean oil, the 2509 closing price was 7758 with a decrease of 8. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8018, 8038, and 7958 respectively, with basis values of 260, 280, and 200. For palm oil, the 2509 closing price was 8116 with a decrease of 66. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8496, 8526, and 8616 respectively, with basis values of 380, 410, and 500. For rapeseed oil, the 2509 closing price was 9188 with an increase of 6. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 9368, 9258, etc., with basis values of 180 and 70 [4] - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: The 9 - 1 monthly spread for soybean oil was 60 with a decrease of 6; for palm oil, it was 36 with a decrease of 18; for rapeseed oil, it was 142 with an increase of 1 [4] - Cross - Variety Spreads: The 09 - contract Y - P spread was - 358 with an increase of 58; the OI - Y spread was 1430; the OI - P spread was 1072 with an increase of 72; the oil - meal ratio was 2.56 with a decrease of 0.01 [4] - Import Profits: The 24 - degree palm oil disk profit for Malaysia and Indonesia was - 283, and the CNF price was 977 for the 7 - month shipment. The FOB price of Rotterdam's crude rapeseed oil was 1058, and the disk profit was - 1346 [4] - Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories: As of the 23rd week of 2025, soybean oil inventory was 36.4 (compared to 81.3 last week and 75.5 last year), palm oil inventory was 37.3 (compared to 36.8 last week), and rapeseed oil inventory was 76.9 (compared to 78.2 last week) [4] Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - International Market: Malaysia's palm oil exports in May were 1387236 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.62%. The inventory was 1990154 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65%. Imports were 68971 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.32%. Production was 1771621 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.05% [6] - Domestic Market (P/Y/OI): The MPOB report was slightly bullish, but due to macro - external factors, palm oil futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly lower. As of June 6, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 37.26 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.86 tons or 2.36%. The inventory was still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The origin's quotes were stable with a slight decline, and the import profit inversion was narrowed. There were 1 - 2 palm oil purchase ships on that day. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable with a slight decline. India's reduction of import duties is conducive to increasing palm oil imports, but the origin is expected to increase production and accumulate inventory, so palm oil lacks obvious and continuous bullish drivers and is expected to move sideways in the short term [6] - Soybean Oil: Soybean oil futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly lower. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 224.46 tons, and the operating rate was 63.1%, a decrease from the previous week. As of June 6, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 81.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.78 tons or 7.66%, at a relatively neutral and slightly lower level in the same period of history, and the basis declined. The market is still concerned about the implementation of US biodiesel, and the sowing of US soybeans is ongoing with a lower - than - expected excellent rate, but the impact is limited. The short - term disk will maintain a volatile trend [8] - Rapeseed Oil: Rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly higher. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 7.2 tons, and the operating rate was 19.19%, a decrease from the previous week. As of May 30, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 78.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons, still at a high level in the same period of history. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil was around 1050 US dollars, and the import profit inversion was expanded to around - 1300. The spot market was light in trading, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight increase. There are many policy disturbances in the short term, and the single - side will maintain a large - range volatile trend [8] Part 3: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected that short - term oils will maintain a volatile trend [10] - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10] - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10] Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides 8 graphs, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, Y 9 - 1 monthly spread, P 5 - 9 monthly spread, OI 5 - 9 monthly spread, Y - P 05 spread, and OI - Y 05 spread [13][16]