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Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market faces significant pressure from a bumper harvest, and the domestic soybean supply pressure is also obvious, with inventory increasing and prices under pressure [4]. - The price of sugar is expected to remain weak due to factors such as the potential increase in global sugar production in the 2025/26 season and sluggish global demand [7][9]. - The oil market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and factors such as the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil, the weather in the United States, and the purchase situation in China and India need to be monitored [19][20]. - Corn prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term in the spot market and show strong oscillations in the futures market, affected by factors such as domestic supply, weather, and policy expectations [28]. - The overall supply pressure of the pig market is still evident, and prices are expected to oscillate [34][35]. - The peanut market is weak, with low spot trading volume and expected increase in new - season planting area, and short - selling is recommended for the 10 - contract peanut [38][40]. - Egg prices in the near - month 07 contract are expected to be weak, while the far - month 8 and 9 contracts may rise if the supply situation improves [48][49]. - Apple futures prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger in June, supported by low inventory and potential impacts on fruit setting [54][56]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - to - long - term, but the market is subject to the uncertainty of US policies [63][64]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 External Market Conditions - CBOT soybean index fell 0.24% to 1043.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.07% to 302 US dollars per short ton [2]. Important Information - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75%. The export inspection volume in the week ending June 5, 2025, was 547,040 tons. The 2024/25 US soybean ending stocks were estimated at 351 million bushels [2]. - As of the week ending June 6, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2446 million tons, the operating rate was 63.1%, the soybean inventory was 6.1029 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 382,500 tons [2]. Logic Analysis - The international soybean market has a significant bumper - harvest pressure, and the domestic soybean supply pressure is obvious, with inventory increasing and prices under pressure [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: M11 - 1 positive spread. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [5]. Sugar External Market Conditions - ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract rising 0.21 (1.27%) to 16.70 cents per pound [6]. Important Information - The FAO sugar price index in May averaged 109.4 points, down 2.9 points (2.6%) month - on - month. The 24/25 sugar - crushing season in Guangdong had a cumulative sugar production of 654,500 tons, and the industrial inventory was 0 tons [7]. Logic Analysis - Raw sugar has been dragged down by the expected bumper harvest in Brazil and broken through the support level. The domestic sugar price is expected to remain weak due to factors such as the lag in summer stocking demand and the potential increase in processing sugar supply [9]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: May remain weak in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell the out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10][11][12]. Oilseeds and Oils External Market Conditions - The overnight CBOT US soybean oil main price decreased by 0.48% to 47.41 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main price decreased by 0.15% to 3,919 ringgit per ton [14]. Important Information - Analysts' average forecasts for the 2024/25 US soybean ending stocks were 351 million bushels, and for the 2025/26 were 298 million bushels. As of June 8, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75% [15][17]. - As of the week ending June 6, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 372,600 tons, and the soybean oil commercial inventory was 812,700 tons [18]. Logic Analysis - The market expects the Malaysian palm oil to continue to increase production and accumulate inventory in May. India has lowered the crude palm oil tax rate, and the US weather is currently good but may turn dry in the future. The domestic soybean oil is in a stage of inventory accumulation, and the rapeseed oil supply - demand pattern remains unchanged [19]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Expected to oscillate in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [20][21][22]. Corn/Corn Starch External Market Changes - CBOT corn futures declined, with the main contract falling 2.1% to 433.5 cents per bushel [26]. Important Information - The CBOT corn futures fell due to good weather in the Midwest corn - producing areas and uncertain export prospects. The 2024/25 corn sales rate in Mato Grosso was 51.05%. The US corn good - to - excellent rate was 71%, the planting rate was 97%, and the emergence rate was 87% [27]. - On June 10, the purchase price at the northern port was 2,270 - 2,290 yuan per ton, and the corn price in the North China production area was strong [27]. Logic Analysis - The US corn planting has accelerated, and the weather is good, so the external - market corn price continues to decline. The domestic corn supply is relatively short, and the spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, while the futures price will show strong oscillations [28]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The external - market 07 - contract corn will oscillate at the bottom. Wait and see for the 07 - contract corn. - Arbitrage: Conduct oscillating operations on the corn - starch spread, and widen the spread when the price is low. Hold the long - corn and short - 07 - contract corn position. - Options: Those with spot positions can consider the strategy of selling call options when the price is high [31][32]. Pigs Relevant Information - The pig price showed a rebound trend. As of the week ending June 6, the 7 - kg piglet price was 481 yuan per head, and the 50 - kg sow price was 1,626 yuan per head. On June 9, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 20.46 yuan per kilogram [34]. Logic Analysis - The supply pressure from the breeding side is still evident, and the overall price pressure is relatively significant due to the relatively high inventory [34]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillate mainly. - Arbitrage: LH79 reverse spread. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [35][36]. Peanuts Important Information - The peanut prices in different regions were reported. The peanut oil price was strong, while the peanut meal sales were slow. As of June 5, 2025, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 144,720 tons, and the peanut oil inventory was 40,100 tons [36][37]. Logic Analysis - The peanut spot trading volume is low, the import volume has decreased significantly, the downstream consumption is weak, and the market expects an increase in the new - season planting area [38]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - sell the 10 - contract peanut when the price is high. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell the pk510 - C - 8800 options [40][41][42]. Eggs Important Information - The average price of the main egg - producing areas was 2.75 yuan per catty, and that of the main egg - consuming areas was 2.95 yuan per catty. In May, the national in - lay hen inventory was 1.334 billion, and the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 46.985 million [44]. - As of the week ending June 6, the national main - area egg - laying hen culling volume was 19.97 million, the national representative - area egg sales volume was 8,856 tons, the production - link inventory was 0.94 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.03 days [45][47]. Trading Logic - The near - month 07 - contract egg price is expected to be weak, while the far - month 8 and 9 contracts may rise if the supply situation improves [48]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the far - month 8 and 9 contracts in mid - to - late June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [49]. Apples Important Information - As of May 21, 2025, the national main - area apple cold - storage inventory was 1.7085 million tons. The 2024 - 2025 season's 80 first - and second - grade apple storage profit in Qixia was 0.9 yuan per catty [52][53]. Trading Logic - The low inventory of apples this season is expected to support the opening price of early - maturing apples. The 10 - contract apple futures price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in June [54][56]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Build long positions in the AP10 contract when the price is low. - Arbitrage: Wait and see first. - Options: Wait and see first [61]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn External Market Impact - ICE US cotton rose on Friday, with the main contract rising 0.39 (0.59%) to 65.97 cents per pound [58]. Important Information - The average temperature and rainfall in the US cotton - producing areas and the rainfall in the Indian cotton - producing areas were reported. The cotton spot trading was divided, and the sales and transaction basis were reported [59][60][62]. Trading Logic - The current trading logic is mainly macro - oriented. In the short term, the price will oscillate within a range, and in the medium - to - long - term, it may decline, but the market is subject to the uncertainty of US policies [63]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The US cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate strongly under macro - influence. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [64][65][66].
银河期货每日早盘观察-20250610
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-06-10 14:13