5月贸易数据点评：整体出口仍具韧性

Export Performance - In May, China's exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly below the market expectation of 5.0% and down from 8.1% in the previous month[5] - The trade surplus for May was $103.22 billion, exceeding the expected $101.3 billion and up from $96.18 billion in April[5] - Exports to the US fell by 34.5%, a decline that expanded by 13.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, significantly impacting overall export performance[14] Import Trends - Imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year in May, worse than the market expectation of a 0.9% decline and down from a 0.2% drop in April[5] - The decline in imports was influenced by both price factors and limited domestic demand recovery, with energy-related imports, particularly crude oil, showing a significant drop of nearly 40%[29] Market Dynamics - The overall export resilience is attributed to strong performance in electromechanical products, which grew by 7.2%, and high-tech products, which increased by 4.9%[19] - Exports to emerging markets like ASEAN and India remained robust, with year-on-year growth rates exceeding 10%, although there was a marginal decline compared to previous months[16] Economic Indicators - The global manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.2% for May, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector, which may affect future export orders[10] - The domestic manufacturing PMI's new export orders index remains below 50%, suggesting weak external demand despite some recovery[10]