策略日报（2025.06.10）：分歧加剧-20250610

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market has seen a slight increase across the board, with expectations that the stock market's low volatility and weak fundamentals will limit the extent of any upward movement. Future volatility is likely to increase, potentially leading to a downward adjustment, benefiting the bond market from inflows of risk-averse capital [14]. - In the A-share market, there was a significant drop in the afternoon session, with the ChiNext index falling over 1%. The total trading volume for the day was 1.45 trillion, an increase of 0.14 trillion from the previous day, with over 3,800 stocks declining. Given the weak fundamentals, the likelihood of a bullish market is low, and future market movements are expected to amplify volatility downward [16]. - In the U.S. stock market, the three major indices showed slowing growth, with the Dow Jones remaining flat, the Nasdaq rising by 0.31%, and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.09%. The rising U.S. Treasury yields pose a risk to various assets, and a potential buying opportunity may arise following a recession narrative [20]. Group 2: Currency Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1886, an increase of 52 basis points from the previous day's close. The RMB appreciated significantly due to better-than-expected trade data between China and the U.S. The offshore RMB shows strong technical signs, with the previous high of 7.42 likely marking the peak of this round of depreciation [22]. Group 3: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index rose by 0.16%, with the pig, corn, and oil sectors leading the gains, while polyester, steel, and non-ferrous metals sectors lagged. The overall technical structure of the Wenhua Commodity Index remains in a bearish trend, suggesting a cautious approach [26].