中信期货晨报：大宗商品涨多跌少，铝合金、白银表现偏强-20250611

Report Title - The report is titled "Commodities Rise More Than Fall, Aluminum Alloy and Silver Perform Strongly — CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250611" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - Overseas macro: Trump's tariff policies have negatively impacted US imports and factory orders. The US economy shows signs of weakness, but the May non - farm payrolls and wage data have boosted market confidence. It is expected that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range in June [7] - Domestic macro: Policies remain stable, and short - term focus is on using existing resources. Manufacturing profits are resilient, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "re - export rush" and the July Politburo meeting [7] - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structured market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Bonds are worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities are range - bound in the short term, and low - valuation and policy - driven opportunities should be noted [7] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Essentials - Overseas: The negative impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders is emerging. The May ISM manufacturing and service PMIs are below expectations. The April trade deficit decreased, and factory orders declined more than expected. The latest economic data is mixed, and the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged in June [7] - Domestic: Policies maintain stability, and short - term focus is on using existing resources. Manufacturing profits are resilient, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "re - export rush" and the July Politburo meeting [7] - Asset views: Overseas, there is more hedging and volatility; in China, it is a structured market. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and bonds are worth allocating after capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities are range - bound, and low - valuation and policy - driven opportunities should be noted [7] 2. View Highlights Macro - Overseas: The stagflation trade is cooling, with a flattened inflation expectation structure and improved economic growth expectations [8] - Domestic: There may be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and short - term fiscal policies are being implemented [8] Financial - Stocks: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude due to the un - released micro - cap risks [8] - Bonds: The short - end may be relatively strong [8] Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Short - term adjustment continues due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations [8] Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation [8] Black Building Materials - Steel: The fundamentals have limited contradictions, mainly driven by raw materials [8] - Iron ore: Overseas shipments are increasing, and port inventories are stable [8] - Coke: Three rounds of price cuts have been implemented, and the bearish expectation remains [8] - Coking coal: Market transactions are light, and upstream inventories are high [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The price is high due to a weak US dollar [8] - Aluminum: The price is high due to Trump's steel and aluminum tariff policies [8] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure continues, and the market is affected by macro and geopolitical factors [10] - LPG: The rebound space may be limited due to weak demand [10] - Asphalt: The futures price is falling [10] Agriculture - Livestock: The market sentiment is boosted by pork purchases [10] - Cotton: The fundamentals change little, and the macro - environment is positive [10]