原油：日度级别回调，多单、正套轻仓持有-20250611

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests holding long positions and positive spreads in light volume during the daily - level correction of crude oil [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil Prices - WTI July crude futures closed down $0.31 per barrel, a 0.47% decline, at $64.98 per barrel; Brent August crude futures closed down $0.17 per barrel, a 0.25% increase, at $66.87 per barrel; SC2507 crude futures closed up 2.60 yuan per barrel, a 0.54% increase, at 481.50 yuan per barrel [1] Geopolitical and Policy News - If Iran is attacked by Israel, Israel's secret nuclear facilities will be Iran's targets; Iran may withdraw from the NPT if the IAEA exerts pressure; the US' Iran nuclear deal proposal is "unacceptable" [2] - Iraq will set the official selling price of Basra Medium crude oil for July to Asia at a premium of $0.30 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai crude oil average [2] - The five OPEC+ member countries participating in the production increase had an oil production increase of 180,000 barrels per day in May, lower than the promised increase of 310,000 barrels per day [2] - Due to refinery shutdowns, fuel imports in California, USA reached the highest level in 4 years [2] - The Israeli navy attacked Houthi armed targets in the port of Hodeidah, Yemen [2] - The EU Commission plans to propose to lower the price cap on Russian oil; von der Leyen confirmed the EU's proposal to lower the price cap on Russian oil to $45 per barrel [2] - Russian President Putin extended the ban on oil sales to buyers who comply with the crude oil price cap [2] - Zelensky urged to set a $30 price cap on Russian oil [2] - The slow - down in negotiations for Saudi Aramco to provide a $5 billion oil mortgage loan to Nigeria is due to falling oil prices [2] - Iran will share some documents with anti - Israel groups and countries [2] - The US needs to cancel some sales to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and complete repair work on the oil reserve [2] - Pakistan's finance minister suggested imposing a carbon tax of 5 rupees per liter on gasoline in the 2027 fiscal year [2] Inventory Data - The API refined oil inventory in the US for the week ending June 6 was 3.712 million barrels, with an expected 631,000 barrels and a previous value of 760,000 barrels [3] Export Forecast - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered the 2025 US ethane export forecast by 24% to 410,000 barrels per day and the 2026 export forecast by 51% to 310,000 barrels per day [5] Demand Outlook - OPEC Secretary - General Al - Ghais said that oil demand will maintain strong growth in the next 25 years, and global energy demand is expected to grow by 24% from now to 2050, with oil demand exceeding 120 million barrels per day [5] Price Forecast - The EIA's short - term energy outlook report predicts that the average prices of WTI crude oil in the current and next years will be $62.33 per barrel and $55.58 per barrel respectively (previously $61.81 per barrel and $55.24 per barrel); the average prices of Brent crude oil in the current and next years will be $65.97 per barrel and $59.24 per barrel respectively (previously $65.85 per barrel and $59.24 per barrel) [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, with the range of values in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [4]