饲料养殖产业日报-20250611

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply-demand pattern in the feed and aquaculture industry is complex, with different products facing various short - term, medium - term, and long - term supply and demand situations, resulting in different price trends and investment strategies [1][2][4][8][9]. Summary by Product 1. Pig - Price Situation: On June 11, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were 13.9 - 14.2 yuan/kg, 13.8 - 14.4 yuan/kg, 13.8 - 14 yuan/kg, and 15 - 15.4 yuan/kg respectively, with prices in Liaoning rising and those in other regions remaining stable [1]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: In the short term, the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. There is still significant pressure on pig slaughter in June, and the seasonal demand off - season is emerging. In the long term, the supply from June to September is expected to increase, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still high [1]. - Strategy: The futures market is in a state of discount. In the short term, it will fluctuate at a low level. It is advisable to short at the resistance level after a rebound [1]. 2. Egg - Price Situation: On June 11, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were 2.5 yuan/jin and 2.78 yuan/jin respectively, both showing a decline [2]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: In the short term, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the supply is still relatively sufficient. In the medium term, the supply is expected to increase in the future. In the long term, the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter [2]. - Strategy: Temporarily observe the 07 contract. For the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish view and short at high levels after a rebound. Look for long opportunities for the 10 contract at low levels [2]. 3. Oil - Price Situation: On June 10, the US soybean oil main contract rose, the Malaysian palm oil main contract fell, and domestic palm oil and soybean oil prices mostly declined while rapeseed oil prices rose [4]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: The fundamentals of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are all mixed. Palm oil has limited upside potential due to seasonal production increases. Soybean oil is under supply pressure but has some support. Rapeseed oil has short - term supply pressure but may see inventory reduction in the long term [5][6][7]. - Strategy: The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil will fluctuate in the short term. Consider the oil - meal ratio shrinking strategy [8]. 4. Soybean Meal - Price Situation: On June 10, the US soybean 07 contract rose, and the domestic soybean meal futures price also increased [8]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: In the short term, the US soybean price is strong due to weather factors, while the domestic supply is increasing. In the long term, the cost increase and weather factors will drive the price to rise steadily [8]. - Strategy: Go long on the M2509 contract at low levels and hold existing long positions [8]. 5. Corn - Price Situation: On June 10, the new corn purchase price in Jinzhou Port rose, and the price in Shandong Weifang remained stable [9]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: In the short term, the supply - demand game intensifies, and the price has support. In the long term, the supply - demand situation tightens, but the price increase is limited by substitutes [9]. - Strategy: Take a bullish view overall. For the 07 contract, go long at the lower end of the range. Consider the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the price changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. from the previous trading day [10].