Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The overall market of energy and chemical products shows a complex situation with different trends for each product. PVC is expected to oscillate weakly, caustic soda to run weakly with oscillations, styrene to be sold short at high prices, rubber to oscillate in the short - term, urea to run weakly, methanol to have limited substantial positive support, polyolefin to oscillate in the short - term, and soda ash to maintain a bearish recommendation for the 01 contract [2][3][5][6][7][9][11][12] Summary by Product PVC - On June 10, the closing price of the PVC main 09 contract was 4810 yuan/ton (-6). The long - term demand is low due to the real - estate situation, and exports are restricted. Supply pressure is high in the third quarter. The current inventory is slightly lower than last year, and the market is macro - dominated. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with attention on the 4850 line pressure [2] Caustic Soda - On June 10, the caustic soda main SH09 contract closed at 2324 yuan/ton (+16). Supply has a neutral inventory with high - level operation and new installations expected. Demand from the alumina industry has a weakening restart expectation, and non - aluminum demand is in the off - season. It is expected to run weakly with oscillations, and the 09 contract should be shorted at high levels, with attention on the 2400 line pressure [3] Styrene - On June 10, the main styrene contract was 7346 (+135) yuan/ton. Crude oil has short - term rebounds but mid - term supply - demand relaxation expectations. Pure benzene has high imports and inventory accumulation. Styrene has short - term port de - stocking but mid - term accumulation expectations. It is recommended to sell short at high prices, with attention on the 7400 line pressure [4][5] Rubber - On June 10, rubber prices rebounded and then declined. New rubber supply is affected by weather, and demand has no obvious improvement. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Inventory in Qingdao has decreased, and tire enterprise capacity utilization rates have declined. The market price has increased slightly [6] Urea - The urea 2509 contract fell 1.24% to close at 1678 yuan/ton. Supply has a high - level operation, demand from the agricultural and industrial sectors is limited, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected to run weakly, with the 09 contract reference range of 1650 - 1850 [7][8] Methanol - The methanol 09 contract rose 0.26% to close at 2276 yuan/ton. Supply has a high - level capacity utilization rate, cost is under pressure, and demand from the olefin industry is okay but traditional demand is weak. Inventory is increasing. The 09 contract reference range is 2180 - 2300 [9] Polyolefin - On June 10, the L main contract closed at 7106 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract closed at 6941 yuan/ton. Supply has capacity expansion pressure, demand is in the traditional off - season, and PP inventory is accumulating while PE has slight de - stocking. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the L2509 reference range of 6950 - 7100 and the PP2509 reference range of 6850 - 7200 [10][11] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash is weak, prices are falling, and the basis discount has narrowed. Supply is increasing, downstream demand from the glass industry is poor, and inventory is accumulating. A bearish recommendation is maintained for the 01 contract [12]
能源化工日报-20250611
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-06-11 01:39