宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250611

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trading logic of the bean market still comes from weather themes, with an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall trend. However, the intraday performance of varieties such as soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil is expected to be weakly volatile [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Viewpoints: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Reference view:震荡偏弱 [5][6] - Core Logic: The optimistic expectation of Sino - US trade continues to ferment, and the US soybean shows weather - market fluctuations. The domestic soybean market is continuously boosted by the US soybean futures price. As China's purchases return to the US market, the US soybean futures price is boosted. The short - term trading logic of the bean market comes from weather themes, and the structure between contracts has subtle changes, with an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall trend. Intraday, it follows the short - term fluctuations of the US soybean futures price and mainly runs in a weakly volatile manner. Other factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery start - up rhythm, and stocking demand [5][6]. Palm Oil (P) - Viewpoints: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Reference view:震荡偏弱 [6][7] - Core Logic: Yesterday's Malaysian palm report showed that Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased for 3 consecutive months. Although the increase was less than market expectations, it still put pressure on the palm oil market. Currently, the game between Malaysian palm oil production increase and strong exports continues. Later, attention still needs to be paid to the suppression of the Malaysian palm oil futures price by inventory pressure. The domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force, and its short - term trend follows the international oil market and runs in a weakly volatile manner. Other factors include Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [6][7]. Soybean Oil - Viewpoints: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Reference view:震荡偏弱 [6] - Core Logic: Influencing factors include US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].