宏源期货品种策略日报-20250611

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment of ethylene glycol has slightly improved, with polyester prices showing a small - scale rebound. However, the overall supply - demand situation remains complex, and short - term price adjustment is the main trend. Attention should be paid to production and sales conditions and the start - up of ethylene glycol plants [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - As of June 10, 2025, the spot middle - price of naphtha CFR Japan was $573.50/ton, up 0.99% from the previous value; the price index of ethylene in Northeast Asia was $781.00/ton, unchanged [1] - The ex - factory average price of ethylene oxide in East China was 6,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of methanol MA was 2,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia was 290 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - The closing price of DCE EG's main contract was 4,269 yuan/ton, up 0.31%; the settlement price was 4,268 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; the closing price of the near - month contract was 4,257 yuan/ton, down 0.72%; the settlement price was 4,256 yuan/ton, down 0.75% [1] - The middle - price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,380 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol's domestic market was 4,370 yuan/ton, up 0.11% [1] - The near - far month price difference was - 12 yuan/ton, a change of 33 yuan; the basis was 101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the index of polyester POY was 7,200 yuan/ton, up 0.35%; the index of polyester staple fiber was 6,500 yuan/ton, up 0.15%; the index of bottle - grade chips was 5,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Operating Conditions - As of June 10, 2025, the comprehensive ethylene glycol operating rate was 53.6%; the operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol was 53.99%, up 1.34%; the operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 52.69%, down 0.03% [1] - The load factor of polyester factories in the PTA industrial chain was 89.64%, down 0.23%; the load factor of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 69.09%, unchanged [1] Cash Flow Situation - As of June 9, 2025, the cash flow of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - $99.98/ton, a change of - $13.71; the cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol was - $95.65/ton, unchanged [1] - As of June 10, 2025, the after - tax gross profit of MTO - made MEG was - 1,673.92 yuan/ton, a change of - 154 yuan; the after - tax gross profit of the coal - based synthesis gas method device was 647.79 yuan/ton, up 2.21 yuan [1] Other Information - A 400,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol production line in Inner Mongolia has resumed normal production and is operating at full load [2] - On June 10, the basis of ethylene glycol showed a weak trend, with short - term fluctuations. The market trading was mainly in a narrow - range adjustment [2] - The trading volume of ethylene glycol on June 10 was 45,400 lots, with a settlement price of 4,269 yuan/ton, a change of 0.00% [2] - The production and sales of polyester filament and staple fiber on June 10 were 56.78% and 75.15% respectively, with the production and sales of polyester filament falling compared to the previous day [2]