长江期货黑色产业日报-20250611

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Overall: The black industry is expected to have a mixed performance with different products showing varying trends. The market is influenced by factors such as supply - demand dynamics, policy, and macro - economic news [1][3]. - Specific products: - 螺纹钢: Futures prices are expected to move weakly in a range due to potential seasonal demand slowdown and relatively balanced supply - demand. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trades [1]. - 铁矿石: The iron ore market is likely to oscillate within the 690 - 730 range. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach as it is more affected by macro news and port inventory is expected to continue decreasing [1]. - 双焦: Both coking coal and coke markets are expected to continue oscillating in the short term. For coking coal, focus on coal mine inventory reduction, coking enterprise profit repair, and steel terminal demand. For coke, pay attention to steel prices, steel mill blast furnace maintenance, and coking enterprise production cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 螺纹钢 - Price and basis: On Tuesday, the futures price of rebar oscillated weakly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 146 (+7) [1]. - Fundamentals: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, possibly affected by the Dragon Boat Festival. The supply - demand is relatively balanced currently, with production declining for two consecutive weeks and inventory de - stocking slowing down. There may be a slight inventory build - up later [1]. - Outlook: The current futures price is near the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. Given the low probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies and the loosening of real - world supply - demand, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. 铁矿石 - Price and basis: On Tuesday, the iron ore futures oscillated. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 719 yuan/wet ton (- 5). The Platts 62% index was 94.95 dollars/ton (- 0.25), with a monthly average of 95.70 dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 60 yuan/ton (- 1) [1]. - Supply and demand: The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,839.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.8. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,516.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 104.04. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 [1]. - Outlook: The iron ore market is mainly affected by macro news. With the high - yield shipments of overseas mainstream mines at the end of the fiscal year, the port inventory is expected to continue decreasing. The market is expected to oscillate within the 690 - 730 range [1]. 双焦 - Coking coal - Supply: Some coal mines have experienced phased production cuts, but the overall supply is still loose. Coal mine inventories are high, and the intermediate - link procurement is cautious [3]. - Demand: After the third round of price cuts for coke, coking enterprises' profit margins have been further compressed, and they maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy. Steel mills' procurement is mainly based on rigid demand [3]. - Outlook: The supply - demand pattern of coking coal remains loose, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - Coke - Supply: The production rhythm of coking enterprises is differentiated, with some experiencing passive production cuts due to profit pressure and environmental inspections, and the overall start - up level has declined [3]. - Demand: The steel market is entering the traditional off - season, and the terminal demand is limited. Steel mills' demand for coke has limited growth, and their procurement is cautious [3]. - Outlook: The supply - demand pattern of coke remains loose. Although the supply has marginally shrunk, the demand support is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. 产经要闻 - Industrial projects: On June 7, Jin'an Mining's 9 - series permanent magnet ferrite ultra - pure iron powder pre - fired material project was put into production. Shanxi Jianlong and Shanxi Meijin resumed production, while Luzhou Xinyang Vanadium Titanium Steel plans to reduce production due to high - temperature weather [6]. - Real estate: From June 2nd to June 8th, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 26.9% week - on - week and 17.5% year - on - year. The transaction area of second - hand housing decreased by 11.8% week - on - week and 9.5% year - on - year [6]. - Construction machinery: In May 2025, the domestic sales of various excavators were 18,202 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.12%. From January to May, a total of 101,700 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 17.4% [6]. - Government bonds: As of June 10, 2025, the new issuance scale of domestic land reserve special bonds has reached 108.348 billion yuan, involving 442 projects and 24 special bonds [6].