中美同意执行日内瓦共识，黑色深V反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Coking coal - Oscillating weakly [1] - Coke - Oscillating [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Since June, the macro - environment has been gradually improving. Sino - US trade frictions have less impact on prices, China's monetary policy continues to strengthen, real - estate policies may speed up the industry's bottom - out process, and the rumored crude steel production limit policy may change the long - short balance [4]. - For coking coal, supply is slightly shrinking due to inventory and environmental restrictions, and attention should be paid to signals of active or administrative production cuts at the mine end. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The cost end will provide support, and factors such as cost rebound or crude steel reduction can drive the price up [5]. - Yesterday, the black sector had a deep V - shaped market affected by Sino - US negotiation news. Coking coal is the main battlefield of long - short game. Short - term J09 long positions can be held lightly and additional positions can be added after the market bottom is confirmed [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Mine and coal - washing plant开工率 decreased slightly, while the productivity of independent coking enterprises was basically flat. 523 mines had an开工率 of 86.3% (- 2.96), 110 coal - washing plants had an开工率 of 60.59% (- 0.96), and 230 independent coking enterprises had a productivity of 74.93% (- 0.15) [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory increased and downstream inventory decreased. 523 mines had a clean coal inventory of 447.53 million tons (+ 37.08), coal - washing plants had a clean coal inventory of 214.74 million tons (+ 11.48), 247 steel mills had an inventory of 798.75 million tons (+ 7.54), 230 coking enterprises had an inventory of 737.96 million tons (- 14.6), and port inventory was 301.56 million tons (- 4.53) [2] Spot Price and Spread - Spot prices decreased, while futures prices rebounded. Mongolian 5 main coking coal was reported at 893 yuan/ton (- 0), the active contract was reported at 785 yuan/ton (+ 5), the basis was 128 yuan/ton (- 5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 6.5 yuan/ton (+ 7) [1] Coke Supply and Demand - Supply was flat, and demand reached its peak and declined. The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises was 74.93% (- 0.15), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 91.32% (- 0.44), and the daily average pig iron output was 2.436 million tons (- 1.17) [3] Inventory - Upstream inventory increased and downstream inventory decreased. 230 coking enterprises had an inventory of 88.41 million tons (+ 10.08), 247 steel mills had an inventory of 645.8 million tons (- 9.13), and port inventory was 214.15 million tons (- 3.03) [3] Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The third round of spot price cuts was implemented, and futures prices rebounded. Tianjin Port's quasi - first - grade coke was reported at 1270 yuan/ton (- 0), the active contract was reported at 1349 yuan/ton (+ 10), the basis was 17 yuan/ton (- 10), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 15.5 yuan/ton (+ 5.5) [3]