宁证期货今日早评-20250611

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not available Core Views - The global economic slowdown and supply - demand imbalances are putting pressure on various commodity markets, with different commodities showing different trends based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals and external factors such as trade negotiations and policy changes [2][3][5] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - The World Bank cut the 2025 global economic growth forecast to 2.3%, 0.4% lower than the previous prediction, suppressing oil price increases. EIA raised the 2025 crude market surplus expectation. Overall, supply surplus is pressuring the crude market. Consider short - selling when prices are relatively high. Monitor the progress of US - Iran, Russia - Ukraine, and China - US negotiations [2] 焦炭 - On June 10, the coke market price was weak. After the price cut, coke producers' profits are near the break - even point, and there is still room for price decline. Steel mills may initiate a fourth round of price cuts. It is recommended to sell on rebounds [3] Treasury Bonds - On June 11, yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds rose slightly at the opening. The bond market may face downward pressure at the opening. With economic downward pressure and the need for counter - cyclical adjustment, the bond market has some support. Adopt a mid - term wide - range oscillatory and slightly bullish approach [5] Rebar - On June 10, domestic steel market prices continued to decline. Steel demand in the off - season remains weak, and both supply and demand in the steel market are weak. Steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly in a narrow range [5] Silver - The progress of China - US trade consultations affects market pricing of US inflation and future interest - rate cut expectations. If the negotiations go well, silver's upward momentum may strengthen. Wait for pull - backs to go long [6] Iron Ore - From June 2nd to 8th, global iron ore shipments increased. The iron ore market is weakly stable. With weak demand from steel mills in the off - season and increasing supply, ore prices are under pressure. However, the deep discount of futures prices provides some support. Ore prices are expected to oscillate at low levels [7] Rubber - Thai raw material prices are rising, and Hainan's rubber collection volume has increased. The natural rubber market has rebounded with commodities due to macro factors. Supply is expected to increase, and demand shows no signs of improvement. The market is expected to oscillate and consolidate [8] Gold - As trade negotiations progress, risk - aversion sentiment has weakened. Market focus has shifted to the US economy and future interest - rate cut expectations. Gold and silver may show a divergent trend. Adopt a mid - term high - level oscillatory and slightly bullish approach for gold [10] PTA - PTA supply is expected to increase with new device startups. Polyester's operating load may decline in June. PTA's supply - demand outlook is weakening. PX supply is increasing, but PXN is expected to remain strong. Adopt a high - level short - selling strategy for PTA [10] Live Pigs - Pig prices are rising steadily in some northern regions. Some breeding enterprises are reducing supply to support prices, and second - fattening enthusiasm has increased slightly. Suggest 09 - 01 contract reverse spreads or short - term long positions in the 01 contract. Farmers can sell hedging according to their sales schedules [11] Palm Oil - Malaysia's MPOB report is neutral. Domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range. Monitor international biodiesel policies, high - frequency supply - demand data, and domestic inventory changes [11] Soybeans - Brazil's soybean production and related data forecasts remain unchanged. Domestic soybeans are quiet, and prices are expected to oscillate slightly upward. Hold long positions [12] Methanol - The methanol market in the interior is strong, and the port market's basis is strengthening. With stable coal prices, high domestic methanol operating rates, and increasing downstream demand, the port may continue to accumulate inventory. The methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [13] Soda Ash - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable. Supply remains high, and downstream demand is tepid. The soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on a short - term basis [14] PVC - PVC supply remains high, and profits are poor. Cost support is strengthening, and demand is stable. The domestic PVC market price is expected to oscillate in a small range. It is recommended to wait and see [15]