SA(SH:601021)2025-06-11 02:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for Spring Airlines is "Accumulate" with a target price of CNY 65.5, representing a potential upside of 13.8% from the current price of CNY 57.55 [5][10]. Core Insights - Spring Airlines has demonstrated stable operating performance with a projected revenue of CNY 20 billion for 2024, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of CNY 2.27 billion, up 0.7% year-on-year [2]. - The airline's passenger turnover (RPK) increased by 18.8% in 2024, reaching 127% of 2019 levels, with international routes showing significant recovery [3]. - The average load factor for 2024 was 91.5%, although it slightly decreased to 90.6% in Q1 2025 due to external factors [4]. Financial Performance - For FY24, Spring Airlines is expected to achieve net sales of CNY 20 billion, with net profit projected at CNY 2.27 billion [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY25 is forecasted to be CNY 2.68, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.5 [6][10]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of CNY 0.82 per share for FY24, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 1.4% [6]. Operational Metrics - The airline's aircraft utilization improved to 9.30 hours per day in 2024, which helped mitigate the impact of declining ticket prices [8]. - The fleet size is expected to grow from 129 aircraft at the end of 2024 to 160 by 2027, indicating ongoing expansion [9]. - The cost per available seat kilometer (ASK) decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, reflecting effective cost management strategies [8]. Market Position - Spring Airlines holds a competitive advantage in the low-cost airline sector, with a strong focus on leisure and low-cost business travel [10]. - The airline's market share in Shanghai's Pudong and Hongqiao airports increased in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [9].