利率周记（6月第2周）：50年国债知多少？

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral view on 50Y treasury bonds [7] Core View of the Report - In the current volatile market with increasing bullish bond market catalysts, the duration advantage of 50Y treasury bonds can be considered, but due to liquidity factors and changes in demand - side institutional behavior, and limited downward space for interest rates, a neutral view is maintained [7] Summary by Related Content Market Conditions and Opportunities for 50Y Treasury Bonds - Since June, trading opportunities in the bond market have gradually increased. Market reaction to Sino - US negotiations has dulled, May's fundamental data is likely to be favorable for the bond market, large banks have increased short - bond purchases, and the upcoming Lujiazui Forum may bring trading opportunities in the capital market [2] - Compared with other bonds, 50Y treasury bonds have a duration advantage in a bull market. Their supply and liquidity are weaker than 30Y bonds. The balance of treasury bonds with a remaining maturity of 45Y - 50Y is about 50.2 billion yuan, while that of 25Y - 30Y is over 2.2 trillion yuan. The current yield - to - maturity of 50Y treasury bonds is lower than that of 30Y local government bonds [2] - Another trading opportunity for 50Y treasury bonds is the interest rate elasticity after primary issuance. Since 2017, in nearly half of the 50Y treasury bond issuances, the primary issuance rate was higher than the secondary rate, often occurring in volatile or bear markets and related to the behavior of long - term bond - allocating institutions such as insurance companies [3][6] Demand - Side Analysis - Insurance institutions are the main buyers of ultra - long - term bonds. They have steadily increased their allocation of ultra - long - term bonds over the years, while funds may extend their duration at certain times for trading purposes [6] - June is a key time for insurance institutions to potentially increase their allocation of 50Y treasury bonds, but the allocation intensity this year may be lower than in previous years. The reasons include lower premium growth from January to April this year, high government bond issuance since the first quarter leading to more primary - market bond purchases by allocation funds, and insurance institutions' preference for 30Y local government bonds due to their higher coupon rates [6]