国泰君安期货所长早读-20250611

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel and stainless - steel: The reality supports and weak expectations of nickel prices are in a game, and nickel prices fluctuate. For stainless - steel, negative feedback leads to an increase in production cuts, and steel prices fluctuate within a range. The short - term stainless - steel is in low - level shock, and the medium - term pressure alleviation depends on production cut trends. If the production cuts in June are fulfilled, the excess pressure may ease in the medium term, and there may be a repair opportunity for steel prices in the third quarter, but a significant repair is difficult [8][37]. - Zinc: In the medium term, it remains bearish, and the long - domestic and short - foreign arbitrage position can be held. The logic that the increase in zinc ore supply is transmitted to the smelting end, increasing the supply pressure, still applies. With the end of refinery maintenance and the entry of the demand side into the off - season, the price is weak. In the short term, the price may decline slightly, and the decline will be more fluent as the off - season deepens [10]. - Other commodities: Gold shows that non - farm payrolls slightly exceed expectations; silver has a technical breakthrough; for copper, inventory reduction supports the price; aluminum fluctuates in a range; alumina declines slightly; lead has weak supply and demand and fluctuates in a range; tin stops falling and rebounds; lithium carbonate has differences between bulls and bears and may still face pressure above; industrial silicon's disk fluctuates depending on market sentiment; polysilicon is recommended for short - position allocation considering SNEC conference information; for iron ore, expectations are repeated and it fluctuates in a range; rebar and hot - rolled coil are in low - level shock; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate in a wide range; coke fluctuates in a wide range, and coking coal has stricter safety inspections and fluctuates in a wide range; thermal coal demand awaits release and it fluctuates in a wide range; logs fluctuate repeatedly [12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pre - market Readings - Stainless - steel: Short - term low - level shock, medium - term pressure alleviation requires attention to production cut trends. In June, Chinese stainless - steel production is 3.239 million tons, with a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 1% and 5% respectively, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate drops to 4%. In June, Indonesian stainless - steel production is 360,000 tons, with a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 9% and 0% respectively, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate drops to - 2% [8]. - Zinc: Medium - term bearish, long - domestic and short - foreign arbitrage position can be held. The increase in zinc ore supply is transmitted to the smelting end, increasing supply pressure, while demand is in the off - season, and the price is weak [10]. 3.2 Gold and Silver - Fundamentals: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread data of gold and silver futures and spot, as well as exchange rate data. The trend intensity of both gold and silver is 0, indicating a neutral view [17][19]. - News: Include news such as the US approaching an agreement to partially exempt steel tariffs on Mexico, Trump's remarks on the Los Angeles riot, the US "stablecoin bill" voting, and the UK's employment situation [17][20]. 3.3 Copper - Fundamentals: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread data of copper futures and spot. The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral view [21][23]. - News: The US - China negotiation is reported to be "progressing smoothly", and some copper mines have production suspension situations due to mechanical failures, wildfires, etc. China's copper ore imports increase, while un - wrought copper and copper product imports decrease [21][23]. 3.4 Aluminum and Alumina - Fundamentals: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread data of aluminum and alumina futures and spot, as well as cost and profit data. The trend intensity of both aluminum and alumina is 0, indicating a neutral view [24][26]. - News: The US Treasury Secretary is considered a candidate for the next Fed Chairman [24][26]. 3.5 Zinc - Fundamentals: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread data of zinc futures and spot. The trend intensity of zinc is - 1, indicating a bearish view [27][28]. - News: The situation in Los Angeles is turbulent, and California sues the Trump administration [28]. 3.6 Lead - Fundamentals: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread data of lead futures and spot. The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral view [30][31]. - News: Similar to zinc, related to the Los Angeles situation [31]. 3.7 Tin - Fundamentals: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread data of tin futures and spot. The trend intensity of tin is 1, indicating a bullish view [34][36]. - News: Similar to gold and silver, including news about the US, UK, etc [34][35]. 3.8 Nickel and Stainless - steel - Fundamentals: Provide price, trading volume, position, and cost - profit data of nickel and stainless - steel futures and spot. The trend intensity of both nickel and stainless - steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [37]. - News: Include events such as Canada's potential nickel export suspension, Indonesia's nickel project production, and the Philippines' discussion of a nickel export ban [37][40]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - Fundamentals: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread data of lithium carbonate futures and spot, as well as raw material price data. The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [43][45]. - News: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate index rises, and China's export of equipment manufacturing products increases [44]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamentals: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, cost - profit data of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures and spot, as well as related product price data in the photovoltaic industry. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, and that of polysilicon is - 2, indicating bearish views [47][49]. - News: A photovoltaic project of Longi Green Energy has an environmental impact assessment report [47]. 3.11 Iron Ore - Fundamentals: Provide price, trading volume, position, and spread data of iron ore futures and spot. The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view [50]. - News: China's May CPI decreases year - on - year, and PPI decreases month - on - month [50]. 3.12 Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - Fundamentals: Provide price, trading volume, position, and spread data of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot. The trend intensity of both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [52][54]. - News: China's steel exports increase, imports decrease, and steel production and inventory data change [53][54]. 3.13 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Provide price, trading volume, position, and spread data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures and spot. The trend intensity of both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [56][58]. - News: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions change, and some steel mills have procurement prices and production adjustment plans [57]. 3.14 Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Provide price, trading volume, position, and spread data of coke and coking coal futures and spot. The trend intensity of coke is - 1, and that of coking coal is 1, indicating bearish and bullish views respectively [60][63]. - News: Provide port prices and index data of coking coal, and information on the long and short positions of futures contracts [60][62]. 3.15 Thermal Coal - Fundamentals: Provide price, trading volume, position, and inventory data of thermal coal. The trend intensity of thermal coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [66][68]. - News: Provide port and origin prices of thermal coal, and information on the long and short positions of futures contracts [67]. 3.16 Logs - Fundamentals: Provide price, trading volume, position, and spread data of log futures and spot. The trend intensity of logs is 1, indicating a bullish view [71][73]. - News: China's May CPI decreases year - on - year, and PPI decreases month - on - month [73].