首席点评：迸发前的平静

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is currently in a calm state before a potential upsurge, with various international and domestic news influencing different sectors [1]. - For key varieties, the report provides detailed analyses and outlooks, including precious metals, stock indices, and crude oil, with different trends and influencing factors for each [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main News on the Day - International News: The US Court of Appeals ruled that Trump's tariff measures may continue to be in effect during the appeal process [4]. - Domestic News: The Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation on imported pork and pork by - products from the EU until December 16, 2025 [5]. - Industry News: The online auction of coking coal from Mongolia's small TT company had all lots go unsold, with a total of 486,400 tons unsold in 10 auctions since the beginning of the year [6]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.55%, the FTSE China A50 Futures fell 0.18%, the US Dollar Index rose 0.16%, ICE Brent Crude fell 0.79%, London Gold Spot rose 0.03%, London Silver fell 0.60%, and other commodities also had corresponding price changes [7]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - Stock Indices: US stock indices rose, while the previous trading day's domestic stock indices declined in the afternoon, with small - cap stocks leading the decline. The current valuation of major domestic indices is low, and the market is expected to consolidate in the short term, with potential for directional movement and increased volatility if new stimuli emerge [2][9][10]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds showed mixed performance. The central bank's net withdrawal of funds led to a relatively loose market liquidity. With the US non - farm data exceeding expectations and the Fed's reduced expectation of interest rate cuts this year, and considering domestic economic data and the property market situation, the central bank is likely to maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures [11]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: SC crude oil rose 0.54% at night. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and the US proposed temporary measures in the Iran - US nuclear negotiations. In the short term, crude oil prices are resistant to decline, but in the long term, a 1.2 million - barrel - per - day increase in production is a major negative factor [12]. - Methanol: Methanol rose 0.13% at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, while the overall methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly. Coastal methanol inventories increased, and it is expected to be bullish in the short term [13]. - Rubber: Rubber rebounded slightly. With good weather in domestic production areas and smooth new rubber supply in Thailand, supply pressure is emerging, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [14]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefins rebounded slightly. The consumption of polyolefins has entered a off - season, and the spot price is average. The rebound of international oil prices helps stabilize polyolefins, and they may gradually stop falling and attempt to rebound [15][16]. - Glass/Soda Ash: Glass futures declined and consolidated. Glass production enterprise inventories increased, and soda ash futures were also in a low - level consolidation. Both are in a cycle of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand balance process [17]. Metals - Precious Metals: Gold and silver showed divergent trends, with gold oscillating and silver strengthening. US economic data affected short - term interest rate cut expectations, and the gold - silver ratio is being repaired. Gold is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the short term [18]. - Copper: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to the intersection of multiple factors such as low concentrate processing fees, stable domestic downstream demand, and concerns about US tariffs [19]. - Zinc: Zinc prices may have a wide - range fluctuation. With the improvement of concentrate supply and the recovery of smelting supply expected, attention should be paid to factors such as US tariffs and downstream production [20]. - Aluminum: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 0.25% at night. With Trump's wavering tariff attitude and potential improvements in the ore end, the demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to weaken in the short term, and it may oscillate [21]. - Nickel: The main contract of Shanghai nickel fell 0.25% at night. With tight nickel ore supply in Indonesia and other factors, the nickel market has both positive and negative factors, and the price may be slightly bullish and oscillating in the short term [22]. - Lithium Carbonate: The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased. Although the cathode production data is average, the cathode inventory is being digested. The overall fundamentals have not improved substantially, and attention should be paid to low - level capital games [23]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: Iron ore demand is supported by strong production motivation of steel mills, but the global iron ore shipment has decreased recently. The medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large, and it is expected to be supported in the short term and weaken in the long term [24]. - Steel: The supply pressure of steel is emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant for now. With the arrival of the rainy season and overseas tariff policies, the demand for steel is expected to weaken, and rebar may be weaker than hot - rolled coils in the short term [25]. - Coking Coal/Coke: The futures prices of coking coal and coke rebounded strongly, but the spot market responded slowly. With the implementation of the new Mineral Resources Law and the approaching of the rainy season, attention should be paid to the negative feedback [26]. Agricultural Products - Oils and Fats: Oils and fats are expected to maintain an oscillating trend. The US - China relationship improvement affects soybean oil, and the Malaysian palm oil data has a neutral impact on the market [27]. - Protein Meals: Protein meals are expected to be strongly oscillating. The improvement of US - China relations supports US soybean prices, while domestic oil mills' high - volume operations may accelerate the accumulation of soybean meal inventory [28]. - Corn/Corn Starch: Corn prices are expected to break through the high level. The feed demand is weak, but the supply is tight in the spot market, and the main contract can be considered bullish at a low level in the medium - long term [29]. - Cotton: Cotton prices are under pressure at a high level. With the expected increase in new cotton supply in Xinjiang and weak downstream demand, it is recommended to build long positions at a low level and expect demand recovery in the medium - long term [30]. Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC index is oscillating. The 08 contract is basically following the spot freight rate, and its ability to break through the previous high depends on the price increase in July and August. With the increase in shipping capacity, the market is expected to continue to oscillate, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [31][32].