研究所晨会观点精萃-20250611

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global risk preference is on the rise due to the positive progress of US trade negotiations, with the US showing good progress in tariff negotiations, such as the potential for an interim trade agreement between India and the US by the end of the month and the near - agreement on steel import tariffs between the US and Mexico. In China, May's export was slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, which boosts domestic risk preference in the short term [3]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a cautious long - position strategy; bonds are at a high level and volatile, suggesting cautious observation; commodities show different trends in sub - sectors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Global and Domestic Market Conditions: Overseas, US tariff negotiations are going well, which boosts global risk preference. In China, May's export was slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, strengthening the short - term economic pull of net exports and boosting domestic risk preference. The ongoing Sino - US economic and trade consultations may affect the market in the short term, increasing market volatility [3]. - Asset Performance and Strategies: Stocks are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a cautious long - position strategy; bonds are at a high level and volatile, suggesting cautious observation; in the commodity sector, black commodities are rebounding from a low level, suggesting cautious observation; non - ferrous metals are oscillating and rebounding, suggesting cautious long - positions; energy and chemical products are oscillating and rebounding, suggesting long - positions; precious metals are at a high level and volatile, suggesting long - positions [3]. Stock Index - Market Performance: Domestic stocks continued to decline slightly, dragged down by sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and military industry. - Fundamentals and Influencing Factors: China's May export was slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, which helps boost domestic risk preference in the short term. The ongoing Sino - US economic and trade consultations may affect the market in the short term, increasing market volatility. The market's trading logic focuses on US trade policy changes and trade negotiation progress. - Operation Strategy: Short - term cautious long - positions [4]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: Gold prices fell slightly, with Shanghai gold dropping to 774 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver remaining at a high level of 8889 yuan. - Influencing Factors: Trade improvement boosts risk preference. Investors are waiting for more information on Sino - US consultations and focusing on the upcoming consumer price index data to judge the Fed's policy path. There are stagflation risks, and the Sino - US economic and trade consultation eases the trade situation, but negotiations between the US and other countries are ongoing. - Operation Strategy: Silver has a demand for technical breakthrough and catch - up growth, and the gold - silver ratio may be repaired. Gold is expected to remain at a high level and volatile. A callback - buying strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to long - term layout opportunities after a phased callback [5]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices fell slightly as the market awaited the results of Sino - US trade talks. - Influencing Factors: The US Commerce Secretary said the talks were fruitful, but no agreement was announced. Some Canadian oil sands production affected by wildfires is resuming, and API data shows concerns about recent demand due to large increases in refined oil inventories despite a slight decrease in crude oil inventories. - Trend Outlook: Oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the near future [6][7]. Asphalt - Market Performance: Oil prices fell slightly, and asphalt prices remained at a high level and volatile. - Influencing Factors: Demand has recovered to some extent, but the recovery is limited. The basis in major consumption areas has declined significantly, and the market structure has weakened following the spot market. After profit recovery, production has increased, and inventory depletion has stagnated. - Trend Outlook: In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [7]. PX - Market Performance: PX prices are in a weak and volatile short - term pattern, with the external market price dropping to 817 US dollars and the PXN spread dropping to 257 US dollars. - Influencing Factors: PTA's recent increase in production has led to higher future demand for PX, and there are still many domestic maintenance plans from June to July, so the supply is expected to be tight. However, the recent decline in PTA prices has led to a decline in the external PX market. - Trend Outlook: It will maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [7]. PTA - Market Performance: PTA's basis remains high, and the monthly spread has declined slightly. There is a high probability of a slight inventory accumulation pattern starting in June, and after the June contract delivery, the tight supply in the circulation link may ease, and both the structure and price may decline. - Influencing Factors: In recent days, the polyester market's logic is mainly related to the cost side, with a high degree of resonance with crude oil and limited self - driving factors. - Trend Outlook: It will mainly maintain a weak and volatile pattern [7]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: The visible inventory of ethylene glycol remains above 650,000 tons, and inventory depletion is limited. - Influencing Factors: There are still many expectations for the return of syngas plants, and the supply side is putting pressure on the market. Downstream production has decreased due to production cuts, and the inventory depletion rate may decrease marginally. - Trend Outlook: It may maintain a volatile pattern in the near future [8]. Short - fiber - Market Performance: Short - fiber prices are in a weak and volatile pattern. - Influencing Factors: The recovery of terminal orders is significantly slower than expected, and short - fiber prices have weakened. Downstream production is expected to decrease in the short term, and short - term orders are still weak, leading to an increase in inventory. - Trend Outlook: It will continue to be weak and volatile in the short term [8]. Methanol - Market Performance: The port methanol market price is oscillating and rising, and the basis has increased. The inland and port inventories are rising simultaneously. - Influencing Factors: Due to the "ship age limit" event, the expected import volume is decreasing, and the port inventory accumulation process is expected to slow down. Inland plant production is gradually increasing, and the supply is abundant, while the downstream demand is generally good. - Trend Outlook: It is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, but the price may decline in the long term [9]. PP - Market Performance: The domestic PP market is oscillating narrowly, and the futures price has slightly recovered with other energy - chemical products, but the space is limited. - Influencing Factors: PP production is increasing both year - on - year and month - on - month, with new production capacity being put into operation. Downstream production has slightly decreased, and inventory has increased significantly after the holiday, with high finished - product inventory, and the fundamentals are deteriorating. - Trend Outlook: The price will be under pressure and move downward in the long term [10]. LLDPE - Market Performance: The polyethylene market price has been adjusted, with prices rising in different regions. - Influencing Factors: The import windows for some LD and HD varieties are open, but there are not many import offers. The proportion of linear film production is the highest, and plant production is gradually resuming, while downstream production has slightly decreased, and inventory has increased to a neutral level. The expected new production capacity is suppressing prices. - Trend Outlook: The rebound space is limited, and attention should be paid to medium - and long - term short - selling opportunities [11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market Performance: The market is waiting for the results of Sino - US negotiations in London, and copper prices are expected to be volatile in the short term. - Influencing Factors: The copper ore supply is relatively tight, the copper concentrate TC has slightly increased, and the port inventory of copper concentrate is at a high level. Electrolytic copper production is at a high level, and there is no strong motivation for production cuts. The peak demand season is approaching its end, and there are risks of a marginal decline in demand. - Trend Outlook: It will be volatile in the short term [13]. Aluminum - Market Performance: Aluminum ingot inventories have continued to decline significantly, but the market's expectations are weak. - Influencing Factors: The subsidy funds for home appliances in Zhengzhou have been used up, and the demand side may weaken marginally under the high - supply background, and inventory depletion may slow down or even turn into inventory accumulation. - Trend Outlook: No clear short - term trend is mentioned, but there are concerns about future inventory changes [13]. Tin - Market Performance: Tin prices have rebounded, and there is potential for further short - term price repair. - Influencing Factors: The domestic tin ore supply is tight, processing fees have decreased, and the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has declined. The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State may be delayed, and Thailand has suspended tin ore transportation from Myanmar. The demand side has mixed trends, with some products maintaining high growth and others weakening, and it is entering the seasonal off - season. - Trend Outlook: The price may continue to repair in the short term, but the upside space is limited due to high - tariff risks, resumption of production expectations, and marginal demand decline [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - Market Performance: The overnight CBOT 11 - month soybean contract closed at 1031.25, up 0.50 or 0.05%. - Influencing Factors: The weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas are good, the sowing progress is fast, and the production situation is stable for now. In South America, Brazil's soybean premium is still strong, and Argentina's soybean harvest is 91%, with the production volume adjusted down to 48.5 million tons. The USDA's June supply - demand report may have a neutral impact on the market, and the focus is on the end - of - month US soybean planting area forecast report. - Trend Outlook: The market expects an increase in US soybean planting area compared to previous expectations [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Performance: The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate increased by 1.49% to 65.03% compared to the previous day. - Influencing Factors: The soybean meal basis is low, and inventory repair is ongoing. The lack of upward momentum in US soybeans also means that soybean meal lacks stable upward support. For rapeseed meal, the inventory depletion in ports is slow, the Sino - Canadian trade relationship is expected to improve, and downstream demand is cautious due to the higher cost - performance of soybean meal. - Trend Outlook: No clear short - term trend is mentioned [16]. Corn - Market Performance: The short - term port inventory pressure is not large, and the price is stable. - Influencing Factors: The price difference between Shandong and North Ports/South Ports and North Ports is high, and the North Port's shipping volume is large, with rapid inventory depletion. The inventory of North China's deep - processing enterprises is at the end - of - year level, and the replenishment demand is strong. The proportion of wheat used for feed is increasing in most regions except for wheat - producing and consuming areas. - Trend Outlook: In the medium term, if the price difference between Brazilian and domestic corn narrows as expected, the price of old - crop corn is likely to rise [17]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: In May, Malaysia's palm oil production, import, export, and ending inventory all increased. In June, Malaysia's palm oil exports continued to improve, and the price remained stable within a certain range. - Influencing Factors: The improvement in exports and the strength of external crude oil and oils support palm oil prices. - Trend Outlook: It will remain stable within a certain range [18]. Pork - Market Performance: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the slaughter volume decreased, but the order volume has increased recently. The spot price has stabilized after a decline. - Influencing Factors: Consumption is weak in summer, and the supply is increasing as large - scale farms plan to increase the slaughter volume in June, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing. The "reserve purchase" information has boosted the farmers' reluctance to sell, and the second - fattening enthusiasm has increased, which has helped stabilize the spot price. - Trend Outlook: The futures and spot markets are under pressure in the short term, but the spot price has shown signs of stabilization [18].