Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, but different assets have different outlooks. For example, it is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and precious metals, and has different strategies for various commodities based on their supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment [6][9][11]. Summary by Category Fixed - Income and Equity Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 198.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan. It is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and caution is advised [5]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and there are uncertainties in tariffs, considering the low valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience, it is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and long positions in stock index futures are considered [8][9]. Commodities Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures had different performances. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and long positions in gold futures are considered [11]. Base Metals - Copper: Last trading day, Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. The Sino - US trade negotiation is beneficial to market sentiment, and there is still a basis for copper price increase. Long positions in Shanghai copper futures are considered [50][51]. - Tin: Last trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. There is a game between the current tight supply situation and the expected supply increase. It is expected that the upward pressure on tin price is large, and a bearish and volatile view is taken [53]. - Nickel: Last trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and it is expected that the price will run weakly [54][55]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak fluctuations. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is declining. Investors can look for opportunities to short on rebounds [13]. - Iron Ore: Last trading day, iron ore futures pulled back slightly. The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened marginally. Investors can look for opportunities to buy at low levels [15]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures showed weak fluctuations. The coal - coke market is in a supply - surplus pattern. Investors can look for opportunities to short on rebounds [17]. Energy - Crude Oil: Last trading day, INE crude oil opened and closed higher. The Sino - US trade negotiation is beneficial to market sentiment, and the pressure from OPEC on oil prices is expected to ease. Long positions in crude oil futures are considered [22][23]. - Fuel Oil: Last trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upwards. The reduction in fuel oil inventory in the ARA region, the recovery of global trade demand, and the rebound in crude oil prices are expected to drive the fuel oil price to rebound. Long positions in fuel oil futures are considered [25]. Chemicals - Synthetic Rubber: Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell slightly. The supply pressure continues, and the demand improvement is limited. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27]. - Natural Rubber: Last trading day, natural rubber futures rose. There are concerns in the demand side, and the inventory is accumulating. Temporarily wait and see, and look for opportunities to go long after the market stabilizes [29][30]. - PVC: Last trading day, PVC futures rose slightly. The supply - demand drive is not strong, and it is in a traditional off - season. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [32]. - Urea: Last trading day, urea futures fell. In the short term, the cost is decreasing and the agricultural demand has not been released. In the second half of the year, exports and agricultural demand may drive the price to rise. Long positions can be considered at low levels [33]. - PX: Last trading day, PX futures fell. The short - term supply - demand structure is tight, and the cost is supported, but the PXN spread has rebounded. An oscillatory trading strategy is recommended [35]. - PTA: Last trading day, PTA futures fell. The short - term supply - demand structure has weakened, but the inventory is decreasing, and the cost is supported. An oscillatory trading strategy is recommended, and opportunities to short the processing margin can be considered [36]. - Ethylene Glycol: Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The short - term supply - demand has weakened, and the inventory has increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate and adjust [37]. - Short - Fiber: Last trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The downstream demand has weakened, but the cost is supported. It is recommended to participate cautiously at low levels [38][39]. - Bottle Chips: Last trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The raw material price has adjusted, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to the cost price changes [40]. - Soda Ash: Last trading day, soda ash futures fell. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. It is expected to run weakly and stably in the short term, and long positions should not be chased during short - term rebounds [41][42]. - Glass: Last trading day, glass futures fell. The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious drive. The market sentiment is weak, and long positions should not be chased during short - term rebounds [43]. - Caustic Soda: Last trading day, caustic soda futures were flat. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and there are regional differences. Long - position holders should control their positions [44][45]. - Pulp: Last trading day, pulp futures rose. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The market is waiting for a turning point, which may occur in August [47][48]. - Lithium Carbonate: Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly, and the price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [49]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: Last trading day, soybean meal futures rose and soybean oil futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal. For soybean oil, long positions in out - of - the - money call options can be considered at the bottom [56][57]. - Palm Oil: Last trading day, palm oil futures fell. The inventory increased in May, but the export data in June is strong. It is recommended to consider widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][59]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: Last trading day, rapeseed meal futures were flat and rapeseed oil futures rose. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long after the correction of rapeseed meal [61][62]. - Cotton: Last trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. Pay attention to the Sino - US trade negotiation and the USDA supply - demand report. Currently, the industry is in an off - season, and it is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. - Sugar: Last trading day, domestic sugar futures oscillated at a low level. The domestic inventory is low, and the import volume will gradually increase. It is recommended to go long in batches [68][70]. - Apple: Last trading day, apple futures oscillated. The new - year domestic apple production is uncertain. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long after the correction [72]. - Live Pigs: Last trading day, the national average price of live pigs rose. The short - term price is affected by the slaughtering rhythm and weight. It is recommended to consider long positions in the peak - season contracts [73][74]. - Eggs: Last trading day, egg futures rose. The supply of eggs is expected to increase in June, and it is recommended to hold short positions [76][77]. - Corn and Starch: Last trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but there is short - term supply pressure. Corn starch follows the corn market, and it is recommended to wait and see [78][80]. - Logs: Last trading day, log futures fell. The fundamentals have no obvious drive, and the market transaction is light. Be vigilant against the disturbance of long - position sentiment [81][82].
西南期货早间评论-20250611
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-06-11 02:36