美股策略：市场进入观察期，贸易战反复不定

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent US-China trade tensions have shown signs of easing, which has positively impacted the US stock market, with the S&P 500 index rising by 1.5%, the Nasdaq 100 by 2.0%, and the Russell 2000 by 3.2% [11] - The upcoming US economic data, particularly inflation figures, is crucial for market sentiment, as the report anticipates that inflation pressures may rise again due to the effects of new tariffs implemented since 2025 [47][48] - The report indicates a shift in global liquidity towards "de-dollarization," with capital reallocating from US-centric markets to non-dollar markets, particularly in Japan and Europe, reflecting a decrease in confidence in dollar assets [12][16] Group 2 - The US consumer confidence index has shown improvement, rising from 85.7 in April to 98 in May, indicating a positive market sentiment due to the easing of trade tensions [20] - Despite the rise in consumer confidence, over 30% of consumers are still opting to save in response to future uncertainties, suggesting a cautious outlook on the labor market [20] - The report notes that the US job market is showing mixed signals, with April's JOLTS report indicating an unexpected rise in job vacancies, but a decline in openings in sectors closely tied to consumer spending, such as leisure and hospitality [30][31] Group 3 - The report discusses the recent inflation data, with the April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [25] - The long-term inflation expectations have decreased to 4.2%, marking the first decline since December of the previous year, although short-term inflation expectations have slightly increased [25] - The employment data for May shows a mixed picture, with non-farm payrolls adding 139,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, but the unemployment rate has risen to 4.244%, indicating underlying labor market challenges [35][36] Group 4 - The report indicates that corporate earnings expectations for the S&P 500 are being revised downward due to concerns over inflation and tariffs, with a notable 4.0% reduction in earnings forecasts for the second quarter [46] - The first quarter earnings growth for S&P 500 companies was reported at 13.3%, exceeding previous market expectations, but the outlook remains cautious due to ongoing economic uncertainties [46] - The manufacturing and services sectors are facing significant pressure, with the ISM manufacturing PMI dropping to 48.5, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector for the third consecutive month [41]