Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a significant increase in free cash flow by 2025, with a strong potential for dividend growth. The performance of its cement business is stabilizing, and the value of its equity is anticipated to be reassessed [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Cash Flow Turning Positive, High Dividend Potential - The company focuses on waste-to-energy projects and indirectly holds a 17.8% stake in Conch Cement. As of the end of 2024, the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 2.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.03% year-on-year [8][14]. - Operating cash flow is expected to increase to 2.02 billion yuan in 2024, with capital expenditures decreasing significantly from 6.91 billion yuan in 2021 to 2.83 billion yuan in 2024 [8][31]. - The dividend payout for 2024 is projected at 657 million yuan, a 100% increase, with a dividend ratio of 32.51% [8][37]. 2. Strong Cost of Capital & Operational Efficiency, Profitable Small-scale Projects - The company has a financing cost of 2.51%, the lowest in its industry, and a capacity utilization rate of 111%, ranking second among peers [8][52]. - The company’s waste-to-energy projects are primarily located in small to medium-sized cities, with a focus on smaller-scale projects that have proven to be profitable [8][41]. 3. Cement Business Stabilizing, Equity Value Awaiting Reassessment - The cement business is showing signs of stabilization, with a projected net profit of 800 million yuan in 2025, leading to a valuation of 6.4 billion yuan based on a PE ratio of 8 [8][14]. - The current market value of the company is 15.4 billion yuan, indicating a significant discount on the value of its stake in Conch Cement, which is estimated at 17.2 billion yuan [8][14]. 4. Energy Efficiency Improvements and Revenue Growth - The company’s average electricity generation per ton of waste processed has increased to 279 kWh/ton, with a compound annual growth rate of 3% from 2018 to 2024 [8][62]. - The external steam supply has surged by 561% in 2024, indicating substantial potential for revenue growth through heat supply [8][63].
海螺创业（00586）：资金、效率双强，现金流回正大增，资产价值重估