国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属-20250611

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated June 11, 2025, covering precious metals and base metals such as gold, silver, copper, aluminum, etc. [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: Non - farm payrolls slightly exceeded expectations [2]. - Silver: Achieved a technical breakthrough [2]. - Copper: Inventory reduction supports prices [2]. - Aluminum: Trades in a range [2]. - Alumina: Experiences a slight decline [2]. - Zinc: Remains weak in the medium - term [2]. - Lead: With weak supply and demand, trades in a range [2]. - Tin: Stops falling and rebounds [2]. - Nickel: The reality support and weak expectations are in a game, and nickel prices fluctuate [2]. - Stainless steel: Due to increased production cuts from negative feedback, steel prices trade in a range [2]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals Gold - Fundamentals: The closing prices of various gold contracts showed different changes, with Comex gold 2508 down 0.06% and London gold spot down 0.20%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts also changed. The inventory of Shanghai gold decreased by 30 kilograms, and Comex gold decreased by 18,915 ounces. The trend strength is 0 [5]. - News: Reports indicate that the US is close to reaching an agreement to partially exempt Mexican steel tariffs, and Trump called the Los Angeles riots a "foreign invasion" [5][8]. Silver - Fundamentals: The closing prices of silver contracts had fluctuations, with Comex silver 2508 down 0.68%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed, and the inventory of Comex silver decreased by 401,157 ounces. The trend strength is 0 [5]. - News: Similar to gold, including US - Mexico steel tariff news and Trump's remarks on the Los Angeles riots [5][8]. Base Metals Copper - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.04%, and the LME copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.45%. The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 496 tons, and LME copper decreased by 2,000 tons. The trend strength is 0 [9]. - News: The US is close to reaching an agreement to partially exempt Mexican steel tariffs, and Teck Resources' Chilean copper mine will be suspended for about a month due to mechanical failure [9][11]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 19,980, and the LME aluminum 3M was 2,494. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.21 tons. The trend strength is 0 [12]. - News: The US Treasury Secretary Bessent is considered a candidate for the next Fed Chairman [12][14]. - Alumina - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,886, down 6. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed. The trend strength is 0 [12]. - News: Similar to aluminum news [12][14]. Zinc - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 0.30%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.32%. The inventory of Shanghai zinc increased by 997 tons, and LME zinc decreased by 1,050 tons. The trend strength is - 1 [15]. - News: The situation in Los Angeles escalated, and California sued the Trump administration for deploying troops [16]. Lead - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract increased by 0.69%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.71%. The inventory of Shanghai lead increased by 399 tons, and LME lead decreased by 1,950 tons. The trend strength is 0 [18]. - News: Similar to zinc news [18][19]. Tin - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract decreased by 0.12%, and the LME tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.06%. The inventory of Shanghai tin decreased by 38 tons, and LME tin decreased by 25 tons. The trend strength is 1 [21][22]. - News: Similar to other metals, including US - Mexico steel tariff news and Trump's remarks on the Los Angeles riots [22][23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,390, down 1,320. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed. The trend strength is 0 [25]. - News: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US, an Indonesian nickel project entered the trial - production stage, a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production, the Philippines is discussing a nickel export ban, and an Indonesian cold - rolling mill may continue maintenance [25][26][28]. - Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,460, down 180. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed. The trend strength is 0 [25]. - News: Similar to nickel news [25][26][28].