五矿期货早报有色金属-20250611
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-06-11 02:52
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term due to a relatively neutral sentiment, tight raw - material supply, but weakening consumer resilience [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to rise, but the upward height is limited because of improved domestic commodity atmosphere, inventory depletion, and the impact of US tariff policies [3]. - Lead prices are expected to remain weakly operational due to weak downstream consumption and high inventory of recycled lead products [4]. - Zinc prices may continue to decline if there is no production - control move from the industrial side, considering the surplus of zinc ore and weak terminal consumption [6]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as the supply side faces uncertainties and downstream has a strong demand for low - price procurement [7][8]. - Nickel fundamentals have slightly improved in the short term, but are bearish in the long run, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate as there is a lack of marginal changes in supply and demand [11]. - Alumina prices are expected to be anchored by costs, and it is recommended to short lightly on rebounds [13]. - The future trend of stainless steel depends on whether downstream demand can initiate substantial restocking [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Price: LME copper closed down 0.45% to $9725/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 79030 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 2000 to 120400 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 3.4 million tons [1]. - Market: The domestic copper spot import loss widened, and the scrap - copper substitution advantage increased [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed up 0.44% to $2494/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20050 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.1 to 35.6 million tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 36.0 million tons [3]. - Market: The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to rise, and the spot premium in East China remained flat [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index closed up 0.67% to 16877 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1987/ton [4]. - Inventory: SHFE lead futures inventory was 4.22 million tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 5.09 million tons [4]. - Market: Downstream battery enterprises' production rate dropped to 60%, and the production rate of primary lead smelting rose to 70% [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index closed down 0.36% to 21715 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2639.5/ton [6]. - Inventory: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 0.31 million tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 8.17 million tons [6]. - Market: Zinc ore remained in surplus, and zinc smelters' profits increased [6]. Tin - Price: On June 10, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 263420 yuan/ton, down 0.12% [7]. - Supply: It is expected that domestic tin ore imports will decrease by 500 - 1000 tons in June, and the smelting enterprises' operating rate is low [7]. - Demand: Downstream enterprises' orders did not increase significantly, and the willingness to replenish inventory at low prices decreased as prices rose [8]. Nickel - Price: SHFE nickel main contract closed at 121360 yuan/ton, up 0.05%, and LME main contract closed at $15530/ton, down 0.42% [9]. - Supply: Nickel ore supply was tight, and some Indonesian smelters reduced production [9]. - Market: The price of nickel - iron rebounded, and the price of nickel sulfate was expected to strengthen [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC spot index was 60,537 yuan, and the LC2507 contract closed at 60,760 yuan, up 0.10% [11]. - Market: The contract positions decreased, and the main contract was expected to switch to LC2509 [11]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index fell 0.21% to 2883 yuan/ton, and the Shandong spot price was 3275 yuan/ton, with a premium of 337 yuan/ton over the 07 contract [12][13]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts were 8.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.33 million tons [13]. - Market: The bauxite price in Guinea decreased, and it is recommended to short lightly on rebounds [13]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12460 yuan/ton, down 1.42%, and spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi decreased [15]. - Inventory: The futures inventory was 120039 tons, a decrease of 1624, and the social inventory increased by 2.06% [15]. - Market: The market competition was fierce after the price - limit policy was lifted, and downstream users held a wait - and - see attitude [15].