碳酸锂：供求修复尚需时日

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Lithium prices have returned to a low level, and capacity is being cleared out in an orderly manner. Supply disruptions may bring about short - term rebounds, but it will take time to restore the supply - demand balance. The short - term fundamentals are unlikely to reverse substantially. It is recommended that the industry seize the opportunity of the market rebound, and speculative funds should be cautious about bottom - fishing [1] Group 3: Market Review - In H1 2025, lithium prices started high and then declined. From early January to late January, due to concerns about a potential short - term supply - demand mismatch after the Spring Festival in 2024, upstream companies quoted firm prices, and Australian ore prices remained above $1000/ton. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of lithium carbonate production was rapid, domestic supply reached new highs, and the surplus pressure increased. Lithium prices fluctuated weakly in the range of 75,000 - 79,000 yuan. In mid - March, cost pressure was transmitted to the ore end, Australian ore quotes collapsed, and lithium prices started a new round of decline, hitting 58,000 yuan at the end of May. As of June 9, the morning quote of the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index was 60,537 yuan, down 18.5% for the year. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,800 yuan, down 19.0% for the year. On the same day, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract LC2507 was 60,700 yuan, down 21.3% for the year [3] Group 4: Supply Situation - Currently, at least 30% of lithium mines are in cash - loss. However, no large - scale mines exited the supply in the first half of the year, and cost support failed. In 2025, the global resource supply is expected to grow by about 17%, the same as the statistics at the end of last year. High - cost lithium resources face great operating pressure, and some mines may reduce production in the future. Lithium salt plants maintain high operation rates to reduce unit costs. In H1 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate production still showed strong growth, with an estimated year - on - year increase of about 40%. During the same period, the domestic imported lithium carbonate is estimated to have increased by about 12% year - on - year. In the first five months, the domestic lithium carbonate inventory increased by about 22.2%, and the inventory - to - sales ratio was about 1.5, indicating a large supply surplus pressure [6] Group 5: Demand Situation - Demand was relatively strong in the first half of the year, but the macro - expectations have weakened. From January to April, the cumulative global new - energy vehicle sales increased by 28.6% year - on - year, and the new - energy vehicle sales in China according to the CAAM increased by 46.2%. From January to April, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 444.6GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 67.1%. In H1 2025, the domestic lithium iron phosphate production is expected to increase by more than 50% year - on - year, and the ternary materials will increase by more than 10%. However, the relaxation of the domestic mandatory energy - storage policy and the US tariff increase on lithium - ion batteries have impacted lithium - battery consumption, and the demand expectations for H2 have been revised downwards. In the medium term, the adjustment of the new - energy vehicle purchase - tax policy in China may put great pressure on the growth of electric - vehicle demand in 2026 [20][22] Group 6: Strategies - It is recommended that cargo holders sell deep out - of - the - money call options or arrange short positions after the rebound weakens to lock in the sales price; mid - stream enterprises should pay attention to the inventory profit and loss caused by the rebound and subsequent decline of the protection price; speculative funds should be cautious about bottom - fishing [29]