中泰国际每日晨讯-20250611

Market Overview - On June 10, the Hang Seng Index experienced a slight decline of 19 points or 0.1%, closing at 24,162 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.8%, ending at 5,392 points[1] - Total market turnover reached HKD 250.3 billion, with the top two ETFs, the Tracker Fund and the Hang Seng China Enterprises ETF, recording turnover of HKD 16.5 billion and HKD 14.0 billion respectively[1] - Net inflow through the Stock Connect was HKD 7.59 billion[1] Sector Performance - Sub-sectors such as banking, insurance, power, biomedicine, materials, and transportation showed positive performance[1] - Agricultural Bank, China Construction Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank reached new highs since their listings[1] - Biomedicine stocks like Lepu Biopharma, CanSino Biologics, and 3SBio saw increases ranging from 9.8% to 15.5%[1] Valuation Insights - The current AH premium index has dropped to 130.5, indicating a low level within the past three years[2] - After accounting for a 20% dividend tax on H-shares, the adjusted AH premium index is approximately 125, suggesting limited upside for H-shares[2] - The Hang Seng Index's risk premium is nearing two standard deviations below its rolling two-year average, indicating insufficient market risk compensation[2] Economic Context - The economic fundamentals remain in a weak recovery phase, with ongoing downward pressure on prices and unstable corporate profit recovery[2] - If the Hong Kong dollar approaches the weak side of the peg, the Monetary Authority may withdraw liquidity, potentially raising funding costs[2] Real Estate Market Trends - New home transaction volume in 30 major cities fell to 1.42 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 18.1%[5] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities increased to 85.4, up from 83.6 a year ago[7] - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities dropped by 48.9% year-on-year, indicating a significant contraction in the real estate market[8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on state-owned developers for stability in the real estate sector, given the underperformance of Hong Kong-listed property stocks[11] - Monitor high-growth potential sectors such as consumer electronics and AI, which may benefit from reduced external risks[13]