黑色建材日报：市场谨慎观望，钢价震荡运行-20250611

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [1][2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating with a downward bias [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal oscillating, coke oscillating with a downward bias [5][6] - Thermal Coal: No rating provided [7] Core Views - The steel market is in a state of cautious wait - and - see, with steel prices oscillating. Low inventory supports prices, and exports show resilience. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies and Sino - US talks [1]. - The iron ore market is also in a cautious state, with prices oscillating weakly. Although short - term demand keeps prices firm, the long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. Focus on off - season demand and inventory changes [3]. - The coking coal and coke markets are affected by supply - side disturbances, with prices oscillating. Coking coal supply may shrink due to factors, but there are still pressure from high inventory and weakening demand. Coke supply is relatively loose and demand is weak [5][6]. - The thermal coal market is affected by environmental inspections, with prices oscillating. Short - term demand support is insufficient, and the long - term supply is in a loose pattern. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 2974 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3089 yuan/ton. The futures trading atmosphere was light, and the spot market transactions were average, with 9980 tons of building materials traded nationwide [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Steel is continuously destocking, with low raw material prices and good steel mill profits. As the off - season approaches, building material production declines, and consumption may also fall, but low inventory supports prices. The plate maintains a pattern of strong supply and demand, and exports are resilient [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price continued to weaken. The main 2509 contract closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.85%. Spot prices in Tangshan ports decreased slightly, and the trading volume of main ports was 949000 tons, a 11.65% increase. Forward spot trading volume was 1.664 million tons [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Global shipments increased slightly this period, with a significant increase in Australian shipments and a significant decline in Brazilian shipments. Iron - water production is at a relatively high level, and inventory is slightly decreasing. In the long run, supply - demand is relatively loose [3]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is oscillating weakly, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The market has a strong expectation of falling raw material prices, and coke procurement is mainly volume - controlled. Some coking coal mines have reduced production due to inventory pressure and inspections, and the supply of coking coal is loose. After the third - round price cut of coke, coking enterprise profits are further compressed. Imported Mongolian coal has weak downstream procurement and high trader shipment pressure [5][6]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: For coking coal, supply contraction expectations are rising, but there are still pressures from high inventory and weakening demand. For coke, the situation of relatively loose supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term [6]. - Strategy: Coking coal is oscillating, coke is oscillating weakly, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, coal prices are oscillating due to environmental inspections. Chemical and other industries maintain rigid demand, and some coal mines have balanced production and sales. In ports, the market is stable, with price differentiation. Imported low - calorie coal prices are falling, widening the price gap with domestic coal [7]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Short - term demand support for coal prices is insufficient, and the long - term supply is loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. - Strategy: No strategy is provided [7]